Die-hard Jeep fans will likely remain loyal, but ready availability is crucial for some buyers.
Potential Wrangler buyers in CARB states who want the conventional gasoline version could wait for an order or head to a Ford dealership and drive off with a Bronco the same day.
The Ford Bronco has been nipping at the heels of the Jeep Wrangler, its chief rival in the adventure-seeking class of utility vehicles — and a regulatory ripple effect could tighten that race even further.
U.S. sales of the Bronco rose 38 percent in the first quarter to 32,430, while Wrangler volume fell 17 percent to 37,971. Ford’s gains could accelerate after Stellantis recently changed how it allocates Wranglers in the 14 states that follow emissions guidelines set by the California Air Resources Board that are stricter than nationwide standards.
The conventional gasoline-only Wrangler isn’t being allocated for dealerships to stock in CARB states, though the automaker said customers can still order them. Dealers continue to get allocations of the Wrangler 4xe plug-in hybrid in these states.
Bazzy: “I think it can help us.”
Industry observers say this allocation method could leave an opening for the Bronco. Potential Wrangler buyers in CARB states who want the conventional gasoline version will be forced to make a decision: Wait for an order, or head to a nearby Ford dealership and drive a Bronco off the lot that same day.
While die-hard Jeep enthusiasts are unlikely to switch brands and won’t mind exercising a little patience until their new Wrangler is shipped, analysts say there’s a chance those on the fence could be swayed if they need to wait.
Richard Bazzy, who owns three Shults Ford stores outside of Pittsburgh, believes there’s an opportunity here.
“I think it can help us with Bronco sales — and other sales,” Bazzy said of the Wrangler allocations. “I think Ford has had a clear point of view on how to approach their portfolio and combination of ICE and EV products to increase share and meet compliance. We have already impacted that brand even without that.”
Availability is the name of the game, said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights.
There’s value in a customer being able to walk through a dealer lot and pick what they want. If a Jeep retailer can’t sell a person on the 4xe variant, Drury said, the Bronco is right there.
“I know that for some people, [the ICE Wrangler] will be worth the wait,” Drury said. “But how many people just walk onto a dealer’s lot and just buy a car, or they see something they like? That’s another huge factor. Having vehicles on the lot is the curb appeal that we speak of. Having a variety available to show a customer is so worthwhile.”
The car buying process can be complicated enough as it is. Drury said adding more friction to the equation with allocation dependent on state regulations won’t help retailers or consumers.
“This causes question marks [and] just makes people puzzled,” Drury said. “I think for a lot of people they feel like they’re even getting some type of misinformation about the allocations, and they want to do more research about why is it only these states? It could be very puzzling, and I think that dealers will have to also be equipped with answering those questions and trying to provide those rationales for a customer.
“If you give them education behind that, you could try to curb some of that, and maybe convert into a sale, but they’re going have to have that educational component, too.”
Karl Brauer, executive analyst for iSeeCars.com, said the Wrangler went a couple decades without a direct competitor when the previous-generation Bronco was discontinued in 1996. Brauer said the new Bronco is a capable off-roader “that absolutely gives people who are considering a Wrangler an alternative that’s very, very appealing.”
Brauer said there’s definitely potential for someone who planned to buy the ICE Wrangler in a CARB state to switch to its competitor.
“Stellantis would have had a lot more leverage and flexibility with how they want to dole out Wranglers and not potentially lose customers in a pre-Bronco world,” Brauer said. “But we are in a Bronco world now, and that makes it undeniably riskier to increase the difficulty in getting a specific Wrangler model that a customer might want.”
On the flip side, some wonder if consumers have gotten used to the idea of ordering vehicles in the COVID era. If that’s the case, customers may be more willing to wait for the conventional Wrangler, said Brian Moody, executive editor for Kelley Blue Book and Autotrader.
Moody also believes the Wrangler 4xe variant, which boasts a torque and horsepower advantage over its counterpart, has enough selling points to stop consumers from joining the Bronco family.
“The way they implemented their plug-in hybrid 4xe system is really cool and authentic to the brand of Jeep,” Moody said. “Jeep has that eSave feature where you can basically bank the electricity. Then when you get to your destination, say you’re going fishing out in the middle of nowhere, then you can drive on all-electric mode once you get there. That’s pretty cool.”
