Lionel Messi, right, has not played a competitive match since he was injured during the Copa America … [+] 2024 Final on July 14. And if Inter Miami want to pull off a domestic double, they should ease his injury return.
Matchday 30 in Major League Soccer was another successful one for Inter Miami, and perhaps another bad one for fans who want to see Lionel Messi on the field sooner rather than later.
With the Argentine superstar still not fit enough to return to Miami’s match roster, Miami still manhandled the Chicago Fire 3-0 on Saturday night at Soldier Field.
Elsewhere, LAFC suffered a surprising home defeat to the Houston Dynamo and the LA Galaxy lost on the road to St. Louis City. And while Eastern Conference rivals FC Cincinnati and the Columbus Crew did earn wins at home, the weekend ended with the Herons edging closer to wrapping up their first-ever Supporters’ Shield and second major trophy, and heavy favorites to win the trophy even if Messi doesn’t return for several more weeks.
Given that reality, the wise move for Inter Miami might be to delay Messi’s return as long as possible, or at least slow play it in a way the Herons haven’t after previous stints of inactivity. Because, while Messi’s health most likely won’t have an impact on the Shield race, it could be a major factor in the MLS Cup Playoffs. And his recent track record suggests that if Messi returns and tries to play all of Miami’s remaining regular season schedule, his 37-year-old body won’t hold up.
Messi returned to full-team training in the middle of last week, and manager Tata Martino said at first said there was an outside chance he would be fit to make the substitute’s bench in Chicago. Ultimately Martino erred on the side of caution, allowing two more weeks before the start of a seven-match run-in between September 14 and October 19.
But at this point it seems unlikely Messi’s involvement will matter all that much in the Shield race. Miami’s record without the eight-time Ballon d’Or winner is 10-2-3 (W-D-L) in league games, only incrementally worse than an 8-3-1 mark in Messi’s 12 appearances. Indeed, one of the legacies Messi may leave in MLS is of the concept of teams using a magnetic star to lure other key players on team-friendly deals they otherwise would never secure.
And if Miami continues to earn results at their season average of 2.19 points-per-game clip (and avoids defeat in a game at Columbus), the Shield is mathematically guaranteed. More likely, even 10 points from those final seven games could do, putting Miami above the 2.0 ppg threshold that no league rival is currently matching.
However, it does seem likely Messi could make the difference in a late postseason clash against Cincinnati and Columbus, who both won their last competitive fixtures against the Herons with Messi absent. Those games likely wouldn’t come until after the November international window. Which means the most important time to have Messi healthy is a couple months from now.
That doesn’t mean Messi should skip the rest of the regular season. But trying to play all seven remaining fixtures could do more harm than good. Since his arrival, Messi has managed to appear in more than six consecutive competitive fixtures for Miami only once — during his euphoric debut sequence in July and August of 2023. He has never appeared in more than six consecutive league matches. And he had already endured two shorter injury respites in 2024 before his current issue.
What does the right approach look like? It might involve seeing Messi return to game solely as a substitute for the month of September before a return to the XI in October. It might mean leaving him out of midweek trips to Atlanta and Columbus. Or it could involve delaying his return all together, letting him get several weeks of full training under his belt as if going through a preseason camp.
Such an approach might not be popular among fans in South Florida or in Atlanta, Toronto and Columbus, cities that could welcome Messi in person for the first time before the regular season ends. Those in charge of producing and selling Apple TV’s MLS Season Pass probably won’t be thrilled either (though they’d be much more upset if Messi wasn’t part of the MLS Cup Playoffs).
But Messi and his supporting cast have always insisted winning trophies is the ultimate goal of his tenure in MLS. And if that’s the case, load management for the rest of the regular season is the only strategy that makes sense
