Wales braced for huge Poland Euros play-off final

Wales are braced for a huge match on Tuesday night when they take on Poland in Cardiff for a place at Euro 2024.

Wales, in their most successful era, are aiming to reach a third successive European Championship.

“It would be a great achievement for us to qualify,” said Wales boss Rob Page.

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“Whenever you go through a campaign, you’re always going to get bumps in the road, especially in transition, and we had one in the summer.

“What pleases me is the reaction we had since then. To go unbeaten in seven and to play in the manner we’ve done. It really, really pleases me.

“I’d be an extremely proud man if we get the job done.”

Wales were absent from major tournaments for 58 years following the 1958 World Cup but, since ending that drought with a mesmerising run to the semi-finals at Euro 2016, qualification has become the expectation rather than a mere pipedream.

It is with good reason when it comes European Championships, where the expanded 24-team format and Nations League-assisted play-offs mean that, if Wales win on Tuesday, more teams will have qualified from their original five-team qualifying group than will have failed to.

Securing qualification would still represent a notable turnaround for Wales, who looked to be down and out following back-to-back defeats against Armenia and Turkey last summer.

The home loss to Armenia was particularly damaging, an embarrassment in truth, and put Page under severe pressure.

Although Wales recovered with a stirring victory over Croatia last October, they still missed out on automatic qualification after a disappointing draw in Armenia.

Luckily for them, they had the back-up route of the play-offs thanks to their Nations League performance in recent years.

The same was true of Poland. Despite reaching the last 16 of the 2022 World Cup, the Poles endured a dismal campaign by their standard.

They suffered one of the most humiliating defeats in their history when they lost in Moldova, and a further loss to Albania led to manager Fernando Santos’ sacking.

Having limped to third place in their group, however, like Wales, Poland had the safety net of the play-offs.

On paper, Poland have the stronger squad, exemplified by their captain, Barcelona striker Robert Lewandowski who is regarded as one of the world’s best finishers of the past decade or more.

They also have several other Champions League-level players – Arsenal defender Jakub Kiwior and Napoli midfielder Piotr Zielinski among them.

But Wales will hope to summon something extra thanks to the fact they are playing at their beloved home of Cardiff City Stadium, where they have lost only one of their past 15 Euro qualifiers.

“It’s an incredible record and our supporters are massive,” said Page.

“They took the roof off with the anthem the other day. Bring it on again Tuesday. Let’s use that to our benefit to get across the line.”

Team news

As was the case for the victory over Finland, Page’s toughest selection dilemma will be in attack, where the competition for places is fierce.

He sprung something of a surprise by starting Southampton’s David Brooks against the Finns and leaving in-form Ipswich Town striker Kieffer Moore, his only recognised natural centre-forward, on the bench – but was instantly vindicated by the former’s goal in the third minute.

Leeds United’s Daniel James made a big impact as a substitute and scored Wales’ fourth but, while he is pushing hard for a recall, Fulham’s Harry Wilson and Tottenham’s Brennan Johnson impressed from the start.

Regular captain Aaron Ramsey is expected to be on the bench once more having only made one brief substitute appearance for Cardiff City since a calf strain, so Spurs defender Ben Davies is set to wear the armband again.

Ipswich winger Wes Burns and Swansea City centre-back Ben Cabango withdrew from the squad with hamstring and calf issues respectively before the Finland game.

Niall Huggins, Joe Morrell and Tom Bradshaw were already missing with injury, while Luton Town captain Tom Lockyer is not included as he continues his recovery from the cardiac arrest he suffered during a Premier League match in December.

Lewandowski will captain Poland, who could be without Aston Villa right-back Matty Cash, who went off injured during Thursday’s semi-final win over Estonia.

Match facts

• Wales and Poland have faced each other on 10 previous occasions. Wales’ only victory came in their first meeting back in March 1973, losing seven and drawing two of their nine subsequent meetings.
• Wales have lost each of their past six games against Poland (all played between 2001 and 2022); the only other non-British nation they’ve had a longer losing run against is the Netherlands, with 10 straight defeats between 1988 and 2022.
• Poland have won each of their past three away games against Wales, all of which have been in competitive action (2-1 in 2001, 3-2 in 2004 and 1-0 in 2022). Indeed, the only other European sides they’ve had a longer winning streak away from home against are San Marino (five) and Finland (two runs of four).
• Following their 4-1 victory over Finland, Wales stretched their unbeaten run to seven matches (four wins, three draws); only once have they recorded a longer streak without defeat under Robert Page (nine games between September 2021 and March 2022 – four wins, five draws).
• Wales are looking to qualify for a third consecutive European Championships, having previously appeared in the 2016 and 2020 editions. In Euro qualifiers played at Cardiff City Stadium, Wales have only lost one of their past 15 (10 wins, four draws).
• Since the start of 2023, Poland have lost three of their four Euro qualifier matches played away from home, losing to the Czech Republic, Moldova and Albania in that time. They did win their most recent one, however, away to the Faroe Islands back in October (2-0).
• Harry Wilson has been directly involved in six goals in nine appearances in the Euro 2024 qualifying campaign (three goals, three assists), the most of any player for Wales. The Fulham midfielder has assisted a goal in each of his past two outings, while his 16 chances created are also the most of any player for the Dragons in this qualifying campaign.
• Robert Lewandowski has been directly involved in 24 goals in his past 27 appearances for Poland (16 goals, eight assists), although he has not scored in any of his three games against Wales to date.

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