West Australian primary producers are bracing for years of uncertainty and disruption as newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump enacts a protectionist economic agenda.
Mr Trump has previously promised to impose targeted tariffs on countries such as China as well as sweeping new tariffs on all imports, which could include those from Australia.
John Griffiths, the owner of Faber Vineyard in WA’s Swan Valley, has spent the last year reviving trade with China following the removal of Chinese tariffs on Australian wine.
“We’re trying to look over the horizon and see what some of the issues could be,” he said.
Mr Griffiths (right) says his business is still recovering from years of Chinese tariffs. (Supplied: Faber Vineyard)
After China ended its tariffs on Australia wine exports the industry saw an increase of more than $600 million in its September 2024 export report.
Mr Griffiths is wary Mr Trump’s promised tariffs could hit the Chinese economy hard and impact winemakers’ efforts to rebuild.
“Issues out there in the world economy are always a concern and that’s one area of potential risk,” he said.
Mr Griffiths said he was focusing on flexibility and market diversity to insulate against the potential effects of new tariffs.
China has dropped its crippling tariffs on Australian wine, but there are fears the Trump administration could hamper the sector’s recovery. (Supplied: Plantagenet Wines)
Wines of WA chief executive Larry Jorgensen does not think the US will impose direct tariffs on Australian wines.
“There could be indirect impacts on other economies — perhaps China, which do purchase our wines,” he said.
Mr Jorgensen said regardless of what happened in the global market, all WA wine producers could do was work to mitigate any impacts.
“I think it’s really about controlling the things we can do, which is to develop our profile and our positioning in markets both domestic and export,” he said.
The US is Australia’s biggest export market for beef and lamb. (ABC South West WA: Kate Forrester)
Sitting on tenterhooks
WAFarmers chief executive Trevor Whittington said he was concerned US tariffs on Australian meat would hit sheep farmers particularly hard.
The industry is already reeling from the federal government’s decision to end live exports by 2028.
“The industry sits on tenterhooks for four years,” Mr Whittington said.
“If he gets lobbied by the US sheep farmers to up those trades, we could be collateral damage.”
But sheep industry sources told the ABC it was too early to know what effect US tariffs could have on export markets.
University of Sydney US Studies Centre chief executive Michael Green said the federal government would be in a strong position for trade negotiations.
“You can’t rule out tariffs on Australia, but I think the free trade agreement and the overall support for Australia in the US congress are pretty good protection,” he said.
“The bigger question is, how much will the tariffs be on China?”
Medo Pournader says tariffs on competitors could create positive opportunities for Australian traders. (Supplied: University of Melbourne)
University of Melbourne supply chain analyst Medo Pournader said Australia was more likely to be impacted indirectly.
She said an example would be US tariffs imposed on Chinese goods such as electric vehicles and batteries that required Australian minerals.
“It might affect the demand China has for our materials because their production is impacted,” Dr Pournader said.
But Dr Pournader said Mr Trump’s tariffs on countries competing with Australia for trade could create opportunities for market gains.
“It depends on whether Australia can leverage higher-quality materials and lower prices,” she said.
“I see it as less of a threat and more of an opportunity for Australia.”
