UFC 309 Fight Card: Odds, Lines, Prop Bets, Predictions And Picks

Tonight’s UFC 309 fight card features a heavyweight title fight as the main event. In that matchup, UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones looks to defend his title for the first time. His opponent on Saturday night in Madison Square Garden is former two-time UFC heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic. We look at the betting odds, line movement, prediction, picks and prop bets for the IFC 309 PPV card.

The UFC 309 PPV fight card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPNews and early prelims on ESPN+.

In the evening’s co-main event, former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira faces Michael Chandler in a rematch of their 2021 meeting. Oliveira won that contest via TKO in the second round to claim the vacant UFC 155-pound title.

Also on the UFC 309 PPV fight card is a middleweight matchup between the rising Bo Nickal and UFC veteran Paul Craig.

Below, we look at the betting odds, line movement, potential prop bets, fight picks, predictions, and more for tomorrow night’s UFC 309 fight card.

UFC 309 Main Event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic

When the UFC 309 betting lines were first announced by BetMGM, Jon Jones was a -650 favorite over Stipe Miocic, who came in at +475. Jones has held steady at -650, while the former champion is the +450 betting favorite as fight night nears.

With the odds being so one-sided, Miocic is a good value bet. As such 83 percent of the UFC 309 main event bets have come in on the former champ, while 58 percent of the handle is on Miocic as well.

The betting pick for this fight is for Jones to win via decision, but don’t shy away from going where there is a lot of value, and that is Miocic via knockout.

UFC 309 Co-Main Event: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler 2

The opening odds for the lightweight co-main event saw Oliveira at -250 and Chandler at +200. There has been slight movement in that betting line. Today, the ex-UFC champion is -275, while Chandler is listed at +210.

Oliveira has picked up 79 percent of the bets and 58 percent of the money ahead of Saturday night.

The UFC 309 co-main event betting pick is for Oliveira to win via submission.

UFC 309: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

As has been the case in all of his UFC fights, Bo Nickal opened as a massive betting favorite, coming in at -1000 over the +650 Paul Craig. Nickal has only become a more substantial favorite. Today, the former Penn State wrestler is listed at -1400 over Craig, who is the +800 betting underdog.

Craig has garnered 84 percent of the bets ahead of this matchup, while Nickal has picked up 58 percent of the handle.

The betting pick is for Nickal to win via knockout.

UFC 309: Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva

The bout between Viviane Araujo and Karine Silva is an important matchup for the UFC women’s flyweight division. When betting lines were first published for this contest, Araujo was the +225 underdog to the -275 Silva. Today, Silva is listed at -300 and Araujo at +240.

Araujo, who has been with the UFC longer, has 65 percent of the bets and 66 percent of the money riding on her.

The betting pick is for Silva to win via decision.

UFC 309: Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop

This catchweight fight was a late addition to the UFC 309 fight card. The bout came together after Charlie Campbell withdrew from his scheduled matchup against Mauricio Ruffy. James Llontop agreed to the fight in late October.

Ruffy was the -750 betting favorite when the fight was first announced. Today he is listed at -900. Llontop opened at +525. He is now at +600.

Llontop has 70 of the bets on him, however, Ruffy has picked up 96 percent of the handle.

The betting pick is Ruffy to win via knockout.

UFC 309 Most Bet Prop Bets

According to BetMGM, the following are the most bet prop bets for the UFC 309 fight card:

Stipe Miocic by KO/TKO or DQ +700

Jon Jones by KO/TKO or DQ +100

Jon Jones by Submission +200

Paul Craig by Submission +1000

Jon Jones in round 2 +400

UFC 309 Most Bet Fights

According to BetMGM, the following are the most bet fights on the UFC 309 card.

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic

Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler

Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

Oban Elliot vs. Bassil Hafez

Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders

UFC 309 Fight Card Preview

Jon Jones (27-1-0-1) captured the vacant UFC heavyweight crown in March 2023 with a first-round submission win over Ciryl Gane. The UFC heavyweight title was left vacant when Francis Ngannou departed the promotion as a free agent to sign with the PFL in early 2023.

The UFC initially booked Jones vs. Miocic for UFC 295. UFC CEO Dana White announced that fight in July 2023, saying at the time, “This is the fight that Jon Jones wanted. It’s the fight that Stipe wanted. It is a legacy fight for both of these guys.”

The Jones vs. Miocic fight fell apart when Jones suffered a torn pectoral muscle in training. With Jones off the card, the UFC opted to book an interim title fight between Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich. Aspinall won that bout, and the interim title, with a 69-second knockout.

Miocic (20-4) has not stepped into the Octagon since he lost the title to Ngannou by knockout in March 2021.

Charles Oliveira (34-10-0-1) has been fighting with the UFC since 2010. He won the vacant lightweight title with his win over Chandler and defended the title once, beating Dustin Poirier. He was booked to face Justin Gaethje in his second title defense, but Oliveira missed weight for that fight, which he won by submission, losing the title on the scale.

Oliveira had a chance to regain the belt in October 2022, but Islam Makhachev submitted him and claimed the vacant belt. Since that loss, Oliveira is 1-1, beating Beneil Dariush by TKO in June 2023 and losing to Arman Tsarukyan via split decision in April of this year.

Oliveira is the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings.

Michael Chandler (23-8) had been waiting for a matchup with Conor McGregor. After a lengthy delay, that fight was booked for UFC 303 in June. However, a broken toe during training camp prevented McGregor from competing.

Chandler last fought in November 2022 when he lost to former interim UFC lightweight champion Dustin Poirier. Chandler signed with the UFC as a free agent in 2020. He made his UC debut in January 2021 with a knockout win over Dan Hooker.

Oliveira and Chandler met in the main event of UFC 262 in May 2021. Oliveira won that contest via second-round TKO, claiming the vacant UFC 155-pound title in the process.

Bo Nickal (6-0) , who picked up a UFC contract after one fight on a Jorge Masvidal’s iKON FC card and two appearances on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022, is 3-0 in the UFC with three submission wins. Nickal has not gone past the second round in any of his pro bouts, and before his UFC 300 matchup against Cody Brundage, he had not fought past the 2:54 mark of the first round.

Paul Craig (17-8-1) has been with the UFC since 2016. Things have not gone well for Craig over the past two years. He is 1-4 over that time, with a TKO victory over Andre Muniz and losses to Volkan Oezdemir, Johnny Walker, Brendan Allen, and Caio Borralho. His most recent outing was a knockout loss to Borralho in May.

Nickal has been a monster betting favorite in all his UFC outings. In his promotional debut, Nickal was a -2500 favorite over Jamie Pickett. His next fight, against late replacement Val Woodburn, Nickal came in at -2200. In Nickal’s most recent outing, he was a -1800 favorite over Brundage.

Nickal was a three-time NCAA Division I national champion and a three-time Big Ten Conference champion for head coach Cael Sanderson and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Nickal took second in the 2016 NCAA finals, losing to Myles Martin of Ohio State. Nickal beat Martin in the 2018 finals. Nickal had a career record of 131-5 with Penn State. He went 61-0 in his final two years.

UFC 309 takes place at Madison Square Garden on November 16.