Topline
Former President Donald Trump’s lead in the presidential race narrowed considerably in the latest Forbes/HarrisX poll and in the new Wall Street Journal poll on Friday, showing his advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris at two points—significantly less than the lead he had earlier this month over President Biden, who dropped out and made Harris his presumptive replacement.
Vice President Kamala Harris trails two points behind former President Donald Trump in a … [+] HarrisX/Forbes poll.
Key Facts
The HarrisX/Forbes online poll of over 3,000 registered voters (margin of error +/- 1.8) found Harris trailing behind Trump 45% to 47% (9% undecided), though when including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s lead narrows to one point, with Harris trailing 42% to 43% behind Trump, and Kennedy securing 9% of the vote (6% undecided).
The Wall Street Journal poll of 1,000 registered voters has Trump ahead of Harris 49% to 47%, though the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points makes the two candidates essentially tied.
In the HarrisX/Forbes poll, among the 689 respondents who identify as political independents, Trump leads 42%-40%, while Harris maintains a significant lead in such key demographics as suburban women (52%-40%), African-American men (57%-30%), African-American women (77%-13%), and white respondents with a college degree (49%-46%).
The HarrisX poll was conducted between Monday—the day after Biden ended his re-election campaign following mounting concerns from within his own party over his advanced age and mental acuity—and Wednesday.
It’s an upswing for Democrats, after a HarrisX/Forbes poll last week (July 19-July 21) showed Trump leading Biden 48%-40% (12% undecided)—Trump led Biden 43%-34% when Kennedy (14%) was included (8% undecided).
When asked if respondents have a favorable view on Harris, 44% said yes, compared to 44% who had a favorable view of Trump, 39% for Biden, 36% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 34% for Trump running mate JD Vance.
Asked who they would have voted for before Biden dropped out of the race, only 36% said they would have voted for Biden compared to 43% for Trump. Most voters supported Biden’s decision to step down, with 73% saying Biden “listened to voters” by dropping out.
Just under one-quarter of respondents identified as liberal, with 38% identifying as conservative and 38% calling themselves moderates, 46% said they voted for Trump in the 2020 election, and 51% said they voted for Biden.
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Crucial Quote
Dritan Nesho, CEO and lead pollster of HarrisX, told Forbes the poll shows Harris “has officially reset the race, erasing Donald Trump’s post-convention gains,” and that Harris “has energized the Democratic base, grown the lead with suburban women and closed the gap with independents; but she is still struggling with African American men, and Trump overall still has a more consolidated base of voters.”
Contra
While multiple polls show Harris leads other potential Democratic candidates in a head-to-head match with Trump, the vice president has only a 37.8% approval rating, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average (Trump’s approval rating is 42.9%). HarrisX/Forbes’ poll also found Harris may perform worse than a hypothetical “experienced Democratic candidate who has served as a governor, senator or representative to Congress” in a match against Trump, with 44% of respondents going with the unnamed Democrat and 44% supporting Trump.
What To Watch For
Harris’s likely shortlist of vice presidential running mates include Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Gov. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. A longer list includes Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, Gov. Grethen Whitmer of Michigan, though some Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Further Reading
