Plant-based milk goes from ‘hippy alternative’ to mainstream as processor tips future growth potential

A major Australian plant-based milk processor is forecasting its highest yearly production as consumers continue to embrace the dairy alternative.

Vitasoy Australia is tipped to produce about 70 million litres of soy, almond, oat, rice, and coconut milks on top of a new line of soy and oat-based yoghurts this year.

The factory, in Baranduda in north-east Victoria, opened in 2002 and at the time produced about 10 million litres a year. 

Vitasoy Australia chief executive David Tyack said the market was projected to keep growing.

“In the past 10 years, there hasn’t been a contraction in the market,” Mr Tyack said.

“It’s gone from the hippy-alternative sold in health food shops to a mainstream product.

“Forty per cent of Australian households now have a plant-based milk in the fridge.”

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the amount of dairy substitutes purchased from supermarkets and other food retailers jumped another 14 per cent in 2020–21.

Almond milk had shown an increase of 31 per cent in apparent consumption from 2020–22.

Mr Tyack attributed the market’s growth to a range of consumer behaviours including the “rise of veganism” and people wanting plant-based milk for health reasons.

“There’s a needs basis. People who can’t have lactose, and for coeliacs the only way to engage with milk is through rice milk,” he said.

“Also, there are not many coffee shops that don’t offer soy, almond, or oat milk.”

Growth in oat

Vitasoy said its most popular product for the past five years had been almond milk, however Mr Tyack expected oat milk to soon become the number one plant-based milk.

“Oat has gone absolutely ballistic in the past four years,” Mr Tyack said.

“It’s the most sustainable crop in the plant-based milk game, uses less water, less emissions and, in terms of taste, it’s quite a neutral taste so it’s a good gateway jump from dairy.

“It’s creamy and in the coffee sense it makes coffee shine through.”

Although soy milk was less popular than oat and almond, Mr Tyack said it still had a place in the market.

“The role that soy plays is that it’s the closest to dairy milk in terms of protein calcium,” he said.

“Almond and oat don’t come anywhere near to the delivery of benefits.”

Looking ahead, Mr Tyack said the future was bright for plant-based milks, however there was a limit to the growth.

“On top of the current 40 per cent, we know from our research there’s another 30 per cent of households that are open to having plant-based milk in their repertoire but that’s probably the limit,” he said.

“The other 30 per cent of the market are dairy loyalists and won’t consider a plant-based offer.”

Room for both

The plant-based milk market is still small compared to the dairy industry.

According to Dairy Australia, more than 8 billion litres of milk was produced last year, however that was the lowest raw milk production in 30 years.

Central Victorian plant-based ingredient company Unigrain co-chief executive Andrew May said producers should see plant-based markets as an opportunity rather than a challenge.

“Ultimately as a country, we need to produce more protein. It doesn’t have to be a competition that one is going to lose to the benefit of the other,” Mr May said.

“The drivers of the reduction in the total milk pool are varied and are not driven by the demand for alternative dairy.”

Unigrain has been in business since the 1970s and sources about 100,000 tonnes of milling oats and 50,000 tonnes of peas and faba beans from Victoria and New South Wales each year.

Mr May said there was room for both markets in Australia.

“There’s always going to be demand for dairy milk, but alternative dairy is there to service a need for consumers,” he said.

“The two things can co-exist very well in Australia.”