Pete Crow-Armstrong, Shohei Ohtani and NL MVP candidates ranked by WAR

It’s far too soon to declare the National League MVP race a two-horse race. We’re approaching the All-Star break, after all. There’s still half a season left. As things stand, however, Chicago Cubs outfielder and Los Angeles Dodgers two-way star Shohei Ohtani are the clear frontrunners — and it’s not particularly close.

As a reminder, PCA was in the very same conversation a year ago before his production plummeted down the stretch. He’s hoping to reverse that arc in 2026, starting slow and picking up momentum in the summer months. One of the most valuable catch-all metrics in this sort of debate is WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. Let’s dive into the numbers, factoring in fWAR (FanGraph’s formula) and bWAR (Baseball Reference’s formula).

What’s the difference between fWAR and bWAR?

The formulas are very similar and both achieve the same goal: to evaluate how much value a player adds relative to the baseline, or the “replacement level,” in a given season.

Here are the individual formulas, as laid out by Jack McLeod in a Samford University study:

• fWAR = (Batting runs + Base Running runs + Fielding runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment + Replacement Runs) / (Runs per win)
• bWAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running runs +/- Runs from GIDP + Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment Runs + Replacement Level Runs) / (Runs per win)

Both formulas account for 1,000 WAR total across a 162-game season. 570 WAR is allocated to position players by FanGraphs; 590 WAR is allocated to position players by Baseball Reference.

The main difference, as McLeod explains, is how the two sabermetric entities calculate defensive runs.

“Fangraphs uses a statistic called Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), while Baseball-Reference uses a statistics called Defensive Runs Saved (DRS),” he writes. “The differences in these stats can lead to drastically different calculations in WAR for some position players.”

fWAR is widely considered a better metric, as it more accurately encapsulates a player’s value independent of external forces around them. But both are widely cited and carry weight in the MVP debate.

National League MVP candidates ranked by fWAR

Shohei Ohtani has enjoyed, by his extremely high standards, a solid season at the plate. He has a .939 OPS and 158 OPS+, with 20 home runs and six stolen bases. He is in the top one percent of one percent of MLB hitters. What really buoys his value as an MVP candidate this season, however, is his value added as a pitcher.

Ohtani has a 1.79 ERA with 95 strikeouts in 85.2 innings. While L.A. has limited his workload compared to Cy Young frontrunners like Cristopher Sánchez (120.1 innings) or Jacob Misiorowski (111.0 innings), Ohtani is pound-for-pound as dominant as any pitcher in the game. To perform at such a high level as both a hitter and a pitcher is naturally what separates him into a league of his own.

PCA (and to a lesser extent, Otto Lopez) receives massive boosts for their defensive value at premium positions. Crow-Armstrong is a Gold Glove lock in center field. Lopez is in a similar category at shortstop, along with leading the National League in batting average (.345) with nine home runs and 17 stolen bases.

If we were to the distill the NL MVP race into a five-man race, I’d wager it’s Ohtani and PCA, a significant gap, and then Lopez and the two Cy Young candidates, Sánchez and Misiorowski, in whichever order suits your personal narrative.

National League MVP candidates ranked by bWAR

The bWAR list shines a much brighter light on the several aces lighting up the National League these days. Sánchez, despite his nine-run dud against Kansas City this week, still gets a clear edge over Misiorowski in bWAR, which is flipped in the fWAR rankings (Miz has been the better pitcher on balance, another feather in fWAR’s cap). Chase Burns, Zack Wheeler and Eduardo Rodríguez have no real chance at earning serious MVP votes, but this is a helpful reminder that a shutdown ace — one who can pitch a lot of innings on a weekly basis — has significant value to a team.

JJ Wetherholt in the only rookie on these lists and deserves his flowers, too. A five-tool infielder with his blend of quickness, IQ and discipline is a rare gift. The Cardinals are probably a few years away from actually contending again, but Wetherholt very much looks the part of a foundational player, which St. Louis has long been in search of.

More MLB news and analysis: