Mutton price to falls below $3/kg, due to increasing numbers of older sheep

For the first time since 2016, mutton prices to producers have dropped below $3 a kilogram, based on carcase weight.

Mutton is the meat from a two- or three-year-old sheep, and Australians don’t really like it — but the Chinese are big fans.

This is just as well because the number of older sheep in the saleyards is booming.

Sheep producers are riding the market, trying to pick a time when the saleyards will not be flooded with older sheep.

Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) market analyst Jenny Lim said the sell-off came as sheep producers re-built their flocks after the long drought.

“The last two seasons have been so favourable that producers and buyers are able to be a bit pickier about the older sheep they want to keep,” Ms Lim said.

According to MLA data, there were 165,364 ewes offered in Australia’s saleyards in the first four weeks of 2023 — up 78 per cent (or 78,000 head) on the same time last year.

NSW saleyards recorded the biggest surge with ewe numbers rising by 94 per cent year-on-year in January.

Prices plummet

The surge in supply has pushed mutton prices down to an average $90.23/head — the lowest level since 2016.

That represents a fall of 98 cents a kilogram since the start of the year, based on MLA’s figures.

AuctionsPlus chief economist Tim McRae said poor-quality sheep were getting hit hard in the market, but good-quality sheep were still returning a good price.

“Anything that is not to ‘spec’ is getting downgraded in price and I think that will continue for the rest of the year,” Mr McRae said.

Export markets soak up surplus

The good news is that overseas markets are hungry for more mutton.

More than 90 per cent of Australian mutton is exported, and Ms Lim said China and the United States could take more.

“China still has a protein deficit and they are looking to fill the gap and they really like mutton as a cut,” she said.

Ms Lim tipped sheep numbers would remain high for the rest of the year.

“There is plenty of feed on the ground and there are going to be plenty of sheep around,” she said.

“Even if the rain eases up a little bit, we will still see plenty of sheep with weight coming through as they come to age.”

Trying to pick the market

At the Tamworth saleyards, about 4,000 sheep and lambs were yarded but farmers baulked at sending their older ewes to the sale.

Tamworth Livestock Selling Agents Association president Angus Newcombe said a lot of people were sitting on their hands waiting for prices to pick up.

“But, if anything, farmers might now hang on till the middle of June, which tends to be the best time to sell mutton,” he said.