Topline
Mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is in Russia, not Belarus, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko said on Thursday, seemingly violating the terms of the Belarus-brokered deal that ended the Wagner Group’s brief uprising against Moscow last month that threatened to plunge the country into civil war while its forces were struggling to gain ground in Ukraine.
Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly in Russia.
Key Facts
Lukashenko said Prigozhin is definitely “not in the territory of Belarus,” according to media reports of the Belarusian leader speaking at a press conference on Thursday.
The Wagner chief is in St Petersburg, Russia’s second largest city, Lukashenko said, adding he had potentially “left for Moscow.”
Prigozhin returned to the city to retrieve money and weapons that were seized by Russian security services, a St. Petersburg-based businessman told the Washington Post.
The warlord’s movements seemingly violate the peace deal Lukashenko brokered between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prigozhin to end Wagner’s uprising in exchange for safe passage to Belarus and dropping criminal charges.
Lukashenko also said Wagner troops had not moved to Belarus—fighters in the failed uprising were expected to join the Russian army, leave or follow Prigozhin to Belarus in exile—and are still stationed in occupied Ukraine.
The Belarusian president said his offer to host Wagner troops was still open.
Crucial Quote
Lukashenko said he did not believe Putin would seek retribution against Prigozhin. “If you think that Putin is so malicious and vindictive that he [Prigozhin] will be ‘whacked’ tomorrow . . . No, that’s not going to happen,” Lukashenko said, according to the Financial Times. As far as he’s concerned after speaking with his Russian counterpart, Lukashenko said the warlord is “absolutely free.”
What To Watch For
Prigozhin’s movements, as well as the continued presence of Wagner fighters in areas of Ukraine occupied by Russia, suggests there are a number of open questions regarding the mercenary group’s relationship with the Kremlin. If Prigozhin is flouting his deal with Putin, it marks another flagrant challenge to the Russian leader’s authority and prompts speculation over where the paid fighters will settle. Lukashenko said he planned to meet with Putin to discuss the issue in the near future. “Will they end up in Belarus or not, and in what quantity — we’ll figure this out,” Lukashenko said.
News Peg
After months of increasingly antagonistic relations with military leaders in Moscow and vocal frustration over Russia’s war in Ukraine, Prigozhin and his private militia turned to march on Moscow. In effect, it was Russia’s first armed coup attempt in decades—Prigozhin disagrees with the term and claims it was a protest—and the biggest challenge to Putin’s authority in his more than 20 years ruling Russia. The uprising was short lived and called off suddenly, reportedly in exchange for safe relocation in Belarus. Putin has hinted the warlord’s finances will be investigated and has targeted areas of the mercenary’s business empire, and Russian regulators blocked many media outlets linked with him.
Further Reading
Who Is Yevgeny Prigozhin: ‘Putin’s Chef’ Now Chief Rival Interfered With 2016 U.S. Election (Forbes)
Wagner Chief Prigozhin Denies Attempting A Coup In First Comments Since Stunning Rebellion (Forbes)
Belarus leader Lukashenko says Prigozhin back in Russia, Wagner deployment unclear (Reuters)
Russian insurrection: Prigozhin’s failed mutiny and the fallout (FT)
