Topline
Lionel Messi’s high-profile migration to the U.S. will help justify tens of billions of dollars in added market capitalization for Adidas, according to Bernstein analysts, upgrading its rating for Major League Soccer’s apparel partner ahead of Messi’s stunning move to Inter Miami FC this summer.
Adidas could ride Messi-mania in the U.S. to big stock gains.
FIFA via Getty Images
Key Facts
In a Sunday note to clients, analysts led by Aneesha Sherman upgraded Adidas from a hold to a buy, raising their price target for the German apparel giant by 23% to $112.
That implies 30% upside for Adidas from its $86 share price at Friday’s market close, projecting the stock to hit a 14-month high and for the company to tack on roughly $10 billion to its market value.
Bernstein said Messi joining MLS is “likely to drive U.S. market share” for Adidas, citing the brand’s sponsorship of the superstar, the American soccer league and Inter Miami’s celebrity co-owner David Beckham, as well as Inter Miami’s astronomical growth on social media in the wake of Messi’s announcement.
The Messi-related upside was just one component of Sherman’s bullishness for Adidas, as also contributing to the upgrade were above-consensus profit estimates thanks to improving margins and signs of increased popularity for the brand in China as well as a steadiness in the popularity of its former Yeezy line.
Big Number
5%. That’s how much Berlin-listed shares of Adidas jumped Monday, a bump largely tied to Bernstein’s bullishness.
Surprising Fact
Adidas will pay Messi a portion of its profits directly tied to his move to MLS, according to the Athletic. Apple, which streams MLS games on its paid streaming service, is under a similar revenue-sharing agreement with Messi, according to the Athletic and the Wall Street Journal.
Key Background
Adidas riding its Messi alliance to significant stock gains would follow a brutal last year for its partnerships with celebrities. The company’s October severing of ties with rapper Kanye West, who oversaw Adidas’ highly successful Yeezy line before he spewed various antisemitic tirades, led to hundreds of millions of dollars in losses as its brand reputation suffered. Adidas registered a $635 million loss during 2022’s final quarter, a period in which sales slipped 2% year-over-year and 16% compared to the same time in 2020. Shares of Adidas are down more than 50% from their mid-2021 peak.
Further Reading
‘Not Because Of Money’: Lionel Messi Picks Inter Miami Over Saudi Mega-Deal, Barcelona Reunion (Forbes)
Adidas Stands To Lose $650 Million After Dropping Kanye’s Yeezy Line—‘Right Decision,’ Analyst Says (Forbes)
