Inter Miami’s Lionel Messi is lifted into the air by Inter Miami defender Jordi Alba after Messi … [+] scored his second goal against the New England Revolution during both teams’ regular season finale on Saturday.
Lionel Messi has always been the exception to the rule. And that includes his 2024 MLS MVP candidacy that is unlike any before it in the league’s 29-year history, but one that is also likely to succeed.
Because of a combination of injuries and international absences, Messi played in only 55.9% of his team’s regular season matches (19 of 34) and for only 48.7% of its regular season minutes (1,489 of 3,060), both far short of any player who has previously won the award. His team proved perfectly capable of earning points without him, picking up 32 of their MLS-record total of 74 points in games played in his absence. And while his 20 goals and 16 assists are an astounding level of production given his limited action, he ends the season without winning either the league’s goal-scoring or assists crown.
Yet there’s a growing consensus that the 37-year-old, eight-time Ballon d’Or winner will add the Landon Donovan MLS MVP trophy to his long list of honors. And I’m here to tell you that’s OK. (Full disclosure: I voted for Messi in the media portion of MLS MVP voting.)
While Messi’s season is certainly an outlier, there’s still enough of a body of work that MLS fans should feel comfortable with the Argentine winning an award that typically goes to a more available contributor.
Because when Messi was available, his production rate was higher than anyone who has ever played in the league. Additionally, the level of Miami’s play with him versus without him was more pronounced than the difference in points earned would suggest. And maybe most importantly, he saved his best performances for the most important moments of Miami’s regular season.
Historic Production Rate
To put into perspective just how historic Messi’s rate of attacking production was this season, consider the following:
Carlos Vela scored 1.12 goals per 90 minutes when setting an MLS record by scoring 34 goals in one season in 2019. Carlos Valderrama contributed 0.81 assists per 90 minutes when setting an MLS record with 26 assists in one season. And Messi has been both scoring an assisting goals at a higher rate than Vela and Valderrama in their respective historic seasons.
Goals/Goals per 90
- Carlos Vela, 2019 – 34/1.12
- Lionel Messi, 2024 – 20/1.21
Assists/Assists per 90
- Carlos Valderrama, 2000 – 26/0.81
- Lionel Messi, 2024 – 16/0.97
Even if Messi’s production rate over a hypothetical extra 5-10 appearances would slip slightly, he would still nearly certain to become the first ever 20g/20a player in MLS history had he been able to complete that workload.
Great And Greater
If you look at points earned per match, it’s true that Miami was only fractionally better with Messi in the team than without him.
But points earned are only one metric by which to measure team performance. And they are flawed to a certain extent, since a narrow victory and an overwhelming victory both carry the same 3-point value.
Messi’s true influence on the Herons is more evident if you compare their goal differential while Messi is on the field versus their goal differential when he isn’t.
Inter Miami 2024 Pts/PPG
- With Messi: 42/2.21
- Without Messi: 32/2.13
Inter Miami 2024 GD/GD per 90
- With Messi: +26/+1.57
- Without Messi: +4/+0.23
Although Miami now owns the record for most points earned in a single MLS season, they fell far short of 2019 LAFC’s record +48 goal differential. Had Messi played most of his team’s matches, there’s a chance the Herons would’ve approached that mark.
Man Of The Moment
Perhaps the most viscerally convincing argument for naming Messi the MVP is the way he acquitted himself in what were Miami’s two most significant games of the regular season.
With the chance to clinch the Supporters’ Shield in an Oct. 2 game at second-place Columbus, Messi scored twice late in the first half to set Miami on its way to wrapping up the honor for the best regular season record.
Then with the MLS points record on the line last Saturday, Messi came off the bench with the score tied 2-2 against the New England Revolution and immediately assisted Benjamin Cremaschi’s go-ahead tally, then scored a second-half hat trick or his own in arguably the best performance of his MLS career.
Cucho Hernandez was enormously influential in last year’s MLS Cup run and this year’s Leagues Cup championship for the Columbus Crew, but he has not had a regular season moment like either of those for Messi. Neither has Denis Bouanga, Luciano Acosta or Evander, the other most-likely contenders for the MVP. And if “value” truly is part of the MVP equation, exceptional performances in high leverage situations should carry considerable weight.
