Kenyan President William Ruto, who won the August 2022 presidential election on a promise to lower the cost of living within 100 days, has failed to address economic hardships in Kenya – and triggered a wave of unrest that could have important consequences well beyond his country.
On June 18, thousands of Kenyan youths took to the streets to protest a controversial tax bill that threatened to raise the prices of basic commodities. While Ruto tried to make immediate, albeit small concessions, the protesters refused to give up on their objectives. Every day, more and more people joined the revolt and even the parliament was stormed.
As police moved to break up the rallies with force, dozens were killed and scores more were injured.
Eventually, on June 26, Ruto gave up and changed course.
“I concede and therefore I will not sign the 2024 finance bill and it shall subsequently be withdrawn,” he said in a televised address. “The people have spoken.”
However, even the withdrawal of the contentious bill proved insufficient to calm the public’s anger. So in an effort to put an end to the protests, on June 11, Ruto made another major concession, dismissed his cabinet, and promised to form a new, “broad-based” one in its place.
Nonetheless, the cabinet reshuffle (in which many of the dismissed secretaries unceremoniously returned to the cabinet, joined by a few token opposition figures) also failed to mollify Kenya’s unwavering protesters. People are still on the streets, and demanding Ruto’s immediate resignation.
As the demonstrations continue to gain momentum, it is looking increasingly unlikely that protesters will return home before securing an early election.
The continuation of Kenya’s demonstrations after the withdrawal of the bill that triggered them shows clearly that these protests are much more than an over-the-top reaction to a single, ill-thought-out policy proposal. The proposed finance bill, it seems, was simply the last straw that broke the camel’s back. People have had enough of endemic corruption, chronic failures in governance, and a lack of socioeconomic support and opportunities for upward mobility. They have had enough of struggling to put food on their tables. They have had enough of inequality and poverty. They want systemic change, and they want it now.
The current situation in Kenya reminds me of the early days of the Tunisian uprising. In December 2010, a young Tunisian who sold vegetables from a barrow set himself on fire to protest against police harassment. He died a few days later, but not before his protest went viral, sparking demonstrations against the cost of living and the country’s authoritarian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
Triggered by this single act of defiance, Tunisians took to the streets in scores and remained there until Ben Ali had to flee the country and a transition was made towards democracy.
The demand for democracy and overall better governance emanating from Tunisia spread across the Middle East like wildfire, and led to the regional democratic awakening that we now call the Arab Spring.
More than 10 years later, I suspect the same may now be happening in sub-Saharan Africa.
With bad leadership rife across the continent, the determination of anti-government protests in Kenya could trigger a tide of protests and consequent political changes well beyond the country’s borders.
The successful demonstrations in Kenya already inspired similar actions in neighbouring countries.
Since August 1, thousands across Nigeria have been protesting under the banner “ #EndBadGovernanceInNigeria.” Just like their counterparts in Kenya, the protesters want an end to bad governance, corruption and the increasing cost of living that has left millions reeling. The government of President Bola Tinubu initially responded to their demands, like that of Ruto, with violence. Rights group Amnesty International has accused Nigerian security forces of killing at least 13 protesters and injuring many more. Hundreds were also arrested. The force denies the accusation.
When even the iron fist of the police did not put an end to the uprising, Tinubu began claiming that he “heard” the people’s demands and that he was “open to dialogue”.
As expected, Tinubu’s offer to talk did not convince the protesters to go home. With protesters still on the streets, and Tinubu running out of options to calm them down, there is every chance that Nigeria’s #EndBadGovernance protests would achieve what #EndSARS protests failed to do in 2020: topple the government and trigger systemic change in the country.
Other leaders in sub-Saharan Africa, whose constituents are also reeling from corruption, inequality, poverty and unemployment, appear well aware of the threats the protests in Kenya pose to their governments.
In Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni delivered a televised address to the nation on July 21, just a few days after the beginning of the protests in Kenya, where he warned protesters that they would be “playing with fire” if they pressed ahead with plans to stage an anti-corruption march to parliament a few days later.
When the protest went ahead regardless, on July 23, Ugandan security forces detained dozens of Ugandan youths for peacefully demonstrating against widespread corruption and alleged human rights abuses by the country’s leadership. The protesters were carrying signs that read “The Corrupt are Interfering with a Wrong Generation” and “This is our 1986”, alluding to Museveni’s ousting of former leader dictator Idi Amin.
During his nearly four decades in power, Museveni has consistently suppressed civil rights and crushed any attempted revolt against his rule with force. A brutal clampdown on anti-government protests triggered by the arrest of opposition leader Bobi Wine in November 2020, for example, left 50 people dead. The youths protesting against his regime today, inspired by the successes of their Kenyan counterparts, know they could face violence for taking to the streets, but they do it anyway because they are determined to trigger change. Thus if those in Kenya and Nigeria successfully oust their governments, or at least secure meaningful concessions, there is every reason to believe that spring will come next to Uganda.
Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa also appears concerned that the spark of revolution in the region could soon jump into his country.
On June 16, the police arrested opposition leader Jameson Timba and 78 other activists for holding a political gathering which authorities said was unauthorised.
Ten days later, on June 26, Mnangagwa warned that his administration would not “brook any form of mischief, under whatever pretext” as Harare prepares to host the 44th SADC Heads of State and Government Summit on August 17. All this, of course, signals that Mnangagwa is well aware that revolution is in the air in his region, and is panicking.
There are, of course, ample reasons for Zimbabwe’s president to feel uncomfortable as he looks at the successes of Kenya’s young protest movement. In power since August 2018, Mnangagwa has made little headway in putting the country on a course to rapid economic development, with ever-increasing living costs and steady unemployment rates keeping many in deep poverty. So far, like Museveni, Mnangagwa has also not refrained from using the full power of the state against anyone protesting his regime. In January 2019, Zimbabwean security forces killed at least eight people in their attempts to disperse widespread protests over a 150 percent hike in fuel prices. Yet, given the worsening circumstances of Zimbabwean youths, and the wave of unrest that engulfed the region in the past few weeks, it is not an outside chance that we will see widespread, persistent protests in Zimbabwe in the near future.
Angola, Eswatini, Namibia, Mozambique, and South Africa have also witnessed protests in the recent past, and their own struggles with corruption, inequality and economic stagnation mean these countries too can soon be rocked by widespread protests demanding better governance, equality and stronger democracy.
The Kenyan demonstrations have clearly encouraged youths in the region to take bold actions towards securing socioeconomic and political change.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, young people disillusioned with their corrupt, inefficient and oppressive governments are taking to the streets to make their voices heard. Just like their forbearers did in the 1950s, they are being encouraged by each others’ successes and learning from their mistakes.
Young Africans from Kenya to Nigeria and from Uganda to Zimbabwe are taking a stance against corruption and inequality, demanding better accountability from their leaders as well as inclusive, responsive, and clean governance. They desire the advancement and protection of human rights and civil rights in their countries, along with equitable access to decent jobs, housing, and financial wellness.
Once it was fully under way, no amount of oppression, violence or concessions from leaders could convince Arab Spring protesters to give up on their dreams and return home.
The burgeoning protest movement in sub-Saharan Africa has also this point of no return. No amount of threats or policy adjustments can halt the overwhelming thirst for urgent sociopolitical transformation in Africa.
An African Spring appears to be on the horizon.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
