NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MAY 23: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees reacts after the second inning … [+] against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium on May 23, 2023 in Bronx borough of New York City. Cole recorded his 2000th strikeout to end the second inning. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
The primary objective of every MLB team in Spring Training is to escape without too many major injuries. The Yankees have already failed, as they have several key contributors missing significant time. These injuries expose a roster lacking the depth of quality associated with the franchise and could portend their worst season in decades.
The Yankees will be without four main contributors to start the season, and they could all miss significant time. Slugging designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton has severe injuries to both elbows that could require season-ending surgery. Third baseman DJ LeMahieu picked up a calf strain in his first Spring Training game, leaving their most uncertain lineup spot in greater upheaval.
The rotation is down two key starters already. Ace Gerrit Cole is awaiting more tests on his elbow, but fears he could require surgery that will likely end his 2025 campaign. Rookie of the Year Luis Gil has a lat strain that will probably keep him out of action until the All-Star break.
The Yankees should’ve seen this coming to some degree. Cole, LeMahieu, and Stanton are all in the 34-36 age range. They represent three of the eight players on the team’s 40-man roster who are at least 33 years old, and Aaron Judge will become the ninth on April 26.
Yankees Lineup Questions
Considering how many aging players the team relies on, their offseason didn’t reflect the likelihood of major injuries. While they went all out to retain Juan Soto, they lost his services to the New York Mets. There’s no way to replace a unique hitter like him, but the only position players they added to the 40-man roster were outfielder Cody Bellinger and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Both are former MVPs whose best days are behind them. Bellinger’s contract was under water with the Chicago Cubs and Goldschmidt is coming off his worst season at age 37.
Nevertheless, one could argue that Bellinger is the Yankees’ second-best hitter. Austin Wells and Jazz Chisholm could make that claim too, but Bellinger’s 111 OPS+ last year—indicating his offense was 11% above the league average—is second to Judge on the 2025 Yankees excluding Stanton. That’s an exceptionally low mark for the second-best hitter on a reigning World Series participant.
The team’s ability to score runs is entirely predicated on Judge, who won his second MVP by hitting .322/.458/.701 with 58 home runs and 10.8 WAR (Baseball-Reference version). He is unequivocally the best hitter in the world right now, but what if he takes a small step back in his age-33 season? Only eight players in baseball history have compiled consecutive 10 WAR seasons, and no one has done it since Barry Bonds in 2001 and 2002. The only players who ever hit 50 home runs in back-to-back years are Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire, Alex Rodriguez, Babe Ruth, and Sammy Sosa.
The Yankees require Judge to accomplish feats that are nearly unprecedented. If he takes a small step back and finishes with 45 home runs and 7.5 WAR, he would still be an MVP candidate, but what would become of the team’s offense? Very few players seem capable of pulling the lineup’s weight, especially without their designated hitter and with third base left unaddressed this winter.
Yankees Rotation Depth
One of the key decisions of the offseason was to re-sign Cole. He triggered his opt out clause in November, but the team brought him back within 24 hours on a four-year extension. History doesn’t indicate this was a wise decision. He missed the first three months of the 2024 season with a sore elbow, and now that elbow seems like it will cost him significantly more time this year.
Even when he was healthy in the second half, his fastball velocity was down from 97.8 mph in 2022 to 95.9 last year, and his strikeout rate fell from to 25.4% from 32.4% two years earlier. These are all symptoms of a pitcher in decline, yet they awarded him $144 million through 2028.
Without Cole and Gil, their rotation is led by newly-acquired ace Max Fried. He’ll be followed in some order by Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Marcus Stroman, and Will Warren. These are the only five healthy starters on their 40-man roster. Rodón has failed to live up to the six-year, $162 million contract he signed in 2023 and the team spent the whole offseason unsuccessfully trying to unload Stroman. Warren made six appearances in his debut season last year, authoring a 10.32 ERA. In 23 starts in Triple-A, his ERA was 5.91.
The Yankees Future
As presently constituted, the Yankees don’t look like the reigning American League champions, and if Judge doesn’t stay superhuman all year, they don’t look like a team that can get anywhere near the playoffs. Their overreliance on aging players, failure to address the team’s depth, and inability to replace Soto could doom them to their first sub-.500 finish since 1992.
At that point, the front office will have to take a long look in the mirror as they reconsider the direction of the franchise. Where would they go from there? The club hasn’t endured a rebuild in decades. Their farm system isn’t considered strong, especially since top prospect Jasson Domínguez will be their starting left fielder and will lose prospect eligibility early in the season. Almost all of their other best prospects regressed last year, including Warren and slugging outfielder Spencer Jones, who fanned 200 times in Double-A.
It’s almost impossible to imagine a complete teardown, but they might not have a choice. The Yankees have five players who will earn $25 million or more through at least 2027—Cole, Fried, Judge, Rodón, and Stanton—when they will all be 33-37 years old. Some of them have already started declining and two of them could miss the entire 2025 campaign.
Not even the Yankees can carry $160.3 million in dead-weight contracts, but they’re already on the hook for that much in 2027. Hopefully, all five of those players won’t have gone downhill, but time isn’t on their side. Staying competitive while digging out from a cycle of large contracts for older players will be an immense challenge in the coming years, and they may have already lost the battle with time.
