U.S. light-vehicle deliveries are forecast to rise 16% to 23% in June, forecasters say, capping a stronger-than-expected first half, fueled by pent-up retail demand and robust fleet deliveries.
DAVID PHILLIPS
Hyundai’s U.S. sales rose 14 percent to 210,164 in the second quarter, and 15 percent to 394,613 in the first half.
U.S. light-vehicle sales rose for the 11th consecutive month in June at Hyundai and Kia, helped by rising inventories and more generous discounts tied to July 4 holiday promotions.
Hyundai said deliveries rose 10 percent to 69,351 last month, but retail sales, a strength for the brand in recent months, slipped 2 percent to 61,991.
Among Hyundai’s key models, June sales were mixed: Elantra, up 60 percent; Tucson, up 13 percent; Santa Fe, up 9 percent; Ioniq 5, up 10 percent; Palisade, down 14 percent; and Sonata, off 19 percent.
At Kia, June sales rose 8 percent to 70,495, capping a first half that produced record deliveries of 394,333, up 18 percent. Kia’s key models posted mixed results last month, with sales of the Forte, K5, Soul, Telluride and Seltos rising, but Sportage, Sorento and EV6 volume down.
Hyundai and Kia also continue to benefit from demand for new and redesigned electrified vehicles.
“Our strong retail partners and the right product at the right time have enabled us to attract new and existing customers to the Hyundai brand,” Hyundai Motor America CEO Randy Parker said in a statement.
Hyundai said it ended June with 49,329 cars and light trucks in stock, up from 47,671 at the close of May and 17,922 at the end of June 2022.
Genesis also remained on a roll last month, with sales jumping 33 percent to 6,003, marking its eighth straight month of higher sales and biggest gain since U.S. deliveries rose 53 percent in April 2022.
Hyundai Motor Group, with Hyundai, Genesis and Kia, has been a first-half “standout in the market,” Cox Automotive said in a statement. Combined first-half U.S. sales for the three brands surged 18 percent to 749,685 vehicles and Cox projects that the group has surpassed Stellantis as the No. 4 seller in the U.S.
Kia’s first-half retail sales rose 17 percent to 362,933. The company said total sales of electrified models jumped 40 percent and SUV deliveries increased 25 percent in the first half.
“As production continues to improve on models that were in short supply during the pandemic, we are seeing sales strength across our core SUV models,” said Eric Watson, vice president of sales operations for Kia America, adding the company expects “continued momentum” the remainder of year with the planned introduction of the EV9, an all-electric three-row crossover.
U.S. light vehicle sales are forecast to rise 16 to 23 percent in June, based on estimates from J.D. Power-GlobalData, Cox Automotive and S&P Global Mobility.
On Monday, Honda Motor Co., Subaru and Mazda will report June sales, while Stellantis, Nissan Motor Co. and Audi will release second-quarter results. June sales will be issued Wednesday by Toyota Motor Corp. and on Thursday by Ford Motor Co. General Motors and Volkswagen will release second-quarter results on Wednesday. Mercedes-Benz, Porsche and JLR are slated to report second-quarter results later in July.
Retail transactions are being driven by pent-up demand as well as improving inventory and selection and rising discounts. Automakers are also boosting fleet shipments to fill a backlog of orders from daily rental operators, commercial customers and government agencies.
Fleet sales are expected to total 275,900 in June, up 55 percent from June 2022, J.D. Power and GlobalData said, with fleet volume expected to account for 20 percent of all light-vehicle sales, up from 16 percent a year earlier.
June capped a stronger-than-expected first half, though some analysts expect the sales pace to cool in the second half of the year as higher interest rates and affordability undermine demand. Based on the first-half sales pace, several analysts have raised their outlook for 2023 sales to 15 million to 15.2 million, compared with 13.8 million in 2022.
For the second quarter, Edmunds projects that Honda, up 48 percent, and Nissan, up 35 percent, will post the biggest gains among major automakers, while Toyota, up 6.3 percent, and Stellantis, up 7.4 percent, will gain the least.
The seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of sales for June is projected to come in at 15.2 million to 15.9 million, forecasters say, up from 15.1 million in May and 13.1 million in June 2022. While mired below 15 million for much of 2022 due to extremely low inventory levels, the SAAR has hovered at or well above that level each month in 2023. But industry volumes remain well below the boom years of 2015-19, when annual U.S. sales topped 17 million units.
J.D. Power and GlobalData said retail inventory levels in June stood at just over 1.2 million vehicles, a 17 percent increase from May and 45 percent higher than June 2022. Toyota, Honda, Kia, Lexus, Subaru, BMW, Land Rover, Cadillac, Hyundai and Chevrolet had the tightest supplies in late June, Cox Automotive said, while Jaguar, Infiniti, Lincoln, Chrysler, Buick, Ram, Dodge, Audi, Ford and Genesis had the highest stockpiles.
The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in June was expected to reach $45,978, flat from June 2022 and down from the record high of $47,362 in December, according to J.D. Power and GlobalData. They estimate that 30 percent of new vehicles were sold above sticker price last month, down from a high of 49 percent in July 2022.
AlixPartners, citing growing supplies and rising discounts, projects average transaction prices will fall 7 percent by 2025.
Average incentive spending on each new car and light truck in June is expected to reach $1,798, nearly double the level of $918 in June 2022, J.D. Power and GlobalData said, with spending as a percentage of the average sticker price expected to increase to 3.7 percent, up 1.7 percentage points from June 2022. Jeep, Ram, Nissan, Chevrolet, Ford, GMC, Hyundai, Honda, Mazda, Kia and Subaru have been the most aggressive in hiking incentives in recent months, Cox Automotive said.
- There were 26 selling days last month, the same as June 2022.
- The average incentive per light truck in June was expected to be $1,649, up $949 from a year earlier, J.D. Power and GlobalData said, while the average discount on cars was projected to be $1,393, up $597 from June 2022.
- J.D. Power and GlobalData, noting a rise in discounts on leased vehicles in recent months, expect leasing to account for 21 percent of retail sales in June, up from a low of 16 percent in September but well off June 2019, when leased vehicles made up nearly 30 percent of all retail volume.
- The average monthly finance payment in June was on pace to total $726, up $27, or 3.9 percent, from a year earlier, J.D. Power and GlobalData said.
- The average interest rate for a new-vehicle loan was 7 percent last month, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from a year earlier, J.D. Power and GlobalData said.
- Edmunds said the average age of vehicles traded in for a new vehicle increased in the second quarter to 5.6 years from 5.2 years a year earlier, but it was still down from 6.1 years in the second quarter of 2019.
“We’re still in a pull market, but getting much more normalized over this period, which puts pressure on pricing, and of course pressure on manufacturer profits.”
— Mark Wakefield, head of AlixPartners’ automotive practice
“This road to recovery for the industry has been a winding one. With many automakers committing to better aligning production and demand, we might be on the cusp of seeing what a new normal sales pace looks like compared to the pre-pandemic years, when bloated inventories and deep discounts shaped the industry.”
— Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds
