How the MLB standings have already changed the All-Star Game

The MLB All-Star Game is a little over two weeks away. Naturally, the MLB standings will directly correlate between which players on the fringe are nominated, and which candidates are left by the wayside.

Let’s go divison by divison to see how the standings are shaping these debates.

NL East

The Braves are still solid frontrunners in the division, but Philadelphia has made up significant ground over the last month, with momentum fully on the Phillies’ side. Meanwhile, the Marlins continue to scrap their way to victories, showing that last season’s progress was not a fluke. The Nationals are also above .500, led by a couple fringe MVP candidates (and obvious All-Stars) in James Wood and CJ Abrams — both of whom have shattered already high expectations coming into the year.

The real surprise, of course, is the Mets and their sky-high payroll. A team loaded with established stars, virtually nobody (aside from the steadfast Juan Soto) has performed up to par this season. The Mets are running out of time to turn this ship around. A deadline fire sale is in the cards — and it’s unclear, beyond Soto, if New York has any real All-Star equity at this point.

All-Star impact

Atlanta has predictably strong support in the fan vote, with Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuña Jr. all in line to start — and Matt Olson not far behind former fan favorite Freddie Freeman at first base.

The Phillies aren’t without momentum of their own, however. Brandon Marsh is hitting .321 with an .863 OPS and currently has the necessary backing to snag a spot in the starting lineup, despite a crowded field. Kyle Schwarber probably loses out to Shohei Ohtani for the DH spot, but both he and Bryce Harper are locks at this stage.

Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler are two of the most dominant aces in the sport. Since the game takes place in Philly this year, it would feel almost wrong if Sánchez is not on the bump in the first inning. We can also pencil in Phillies closer Jhoan Durán.

Washington should get a couple All-Stars in Wood and Abrams. Miami has fewer name-brand players on its roster, but shortstop Otto Lopez (NL-leading .332 AVG) and pitcher Max Meyer (2.60 ERA in 97.0 IP) are worthy candidates.

Soto really feels like the only Mets All-Star given the struggles of Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean on the mound. If you had predicted just one Mets All-Star coming into the season, not many folks would’ve agreed. There’s a case for reliever Luke Weaver, but New York is short on good will these days.

NL Central

The Brewers are once again leading the pack in the NL Central, but there’s a lot more spice and intrigue to this race than there was a year ago. Milwaukee is still the overwhelming favorite to claim the division, but the Cubs are a star-studded team with more firepower — on paper, at least.

Pittsburgh and St. Louis are also prominent in the Wild Card hunt. Paul Skenes leads an uber-talented Pirates rotation, while the Cardinals are the NL equivalent of the little engine that could: a lot of youth and a lot of newfound excitement (albeit with some grave flaws, too).

The Reds started the year strong but have since collapsed under the weight of an underperforming pitching staff and a top-heavy lineup.

All-Star impact

Pete Crow-Armstrong has received shockingly little support in the fan vote (he wasn’t among the top six outfielders in phase one of voting), but he has a strong statistical case to start with 17 homers, 20 stolen bases and an .868 OPS — all while playing elite defense at a premium position in center field. PCA came out of the gate slow but has exploded over the past couple months, looking like the superstar Cubs fans expected. Right now, PCA feels like Chicago’s only lock, but their recent surge could help Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner and others make a push for a reserve spot.

Milwaukee, however, should rule the division from an All-Star standpoint. Jacob Misiorowski has a real case to start for the NL, even if Philadelphia’s Sánchez should probably start — especially in Philadelphia. The Brewers are almost never going to dominate the fan vote, but Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang and William Contreras are all excellent reserve candidates, while Kyle Harrison and closer Trevor Megill should join the Miz on the NL pitching staff.

Pittsburgh can pencil in Skenes already. Braxton Ashcraft has a low-key candidacy, too, while second baseman Brandon Lowe and outfielder Bryan Reynolds should receive strong reserve consideration.

For the Cardinals, Jordan Walker has punched his ticket. That much is easy. Can rookie JJ Wetherholt sneak in? It sure feels possible.

Cincy will get Elly De La Cruz and perhaps Chase Burns, despite the latter’s recent regression. That could be the extent of the Reds’ All-Star representation, though.

NL West

The Dodgers are — surprise, surprise — running away with the division. The Padres are on a skid and currently boast the worst collective OPS in baseball; that team was never a real contender. Arizona is a fun Wild Card sleeper, but nothing more. (Nothing less either, but nothing more.) The Giants are a laughing stock. Buster Posey has wet the bed on a profound level, unfortunately. The Rockies are an entertaining, even promising, failure. That’s progress, at least.

All-Star impact

Shohei Ohtani was the NL’s leading vote-getter in phase one and is guaranteed a starting spot, which means the hometown hero Schwarber probably comes off the bench at DH.

The Dodgers also have Freeman and Max Muncy leading the vote at the corner infield spots, with outfielder Andy Pagés and shortstop Mookie Betts within striking distance, too. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will assuredly represent L.A. on the mound as well.

But how many of the other NL West teams deserve more than one All-Star? Is the answer none?

Mason Miller is the only Padres lock on paper. Fernando Tatis Jr. is still a major contributor despite his historic home run drought, but he just does not feel like an All-Star this season. Corbin Carroll is a fringe MVP candidate and will represent the Diamondbacks. There’s a case for Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo, but Carroll carries the water for that lineup. Eduardo Rodriguez has quietly built a strong case with a 2.27 ERA across 16 starts, so maybe the D-backs can sneak two or three in the backdoor.

San Francisco (Luis Arráez, Logan Webb) and Colorado (Hunter Goodman) are sparse on viable candidates, and their records won’t help.

AL East

The AL East was billed as the most competitive division in MLB coming into the season. As it turns out, the competition is concentrated between two teams — the Yankees and Rays — with the rest stuck deep in the mud.

Toronto was in the World Series seven months ago, but the bottom has fallen out. The vibes are rancid. The Red Sox are the unluckiest team in baseball with a positive run differential (+5) and a dead-last record; time is running out for a turnaround. Baltimore’s inability to get healthy — plus a weak pitching staff — has once again proven fatal.

All-Star impact

Despite their struggles, Toronto’s fanbase has shown up where it counts: the All-Star voting booth. Ernie Clement led all AL vote-getters in phase one and is guaranteed to start at second base as a result. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., despite a sub-.700 OPS, currently leads Yankees superstar Ben Rice by a healthy margin at first base. Kazuma Okamoto has the most third base votes. Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Andrés Giménez and Daulto Varsho are all within striking distance, too.

Credit to Blue Jays fans for their dedication, but in reality, Clement, Varsho and Okamoto are the only Jays with even remotely credible cases on the positional front. Starting pitcher Dylan Cease and closer Louis Varland should be locks, though, so Toronto will be thoroughly represented at this rate.

The deluge of Blue Jays votes could screw over other stronger candidates in the division. Okamoto is very talented, but Junior Caminero has 22 home runs and a .932 OPS for the first-place Rays. He is obviously the “correct” third base starter. Same for Rice at first base, a bonafide MVP candidate with 22 homers and a .928 OPS.

New York has bombers up and down the lineup and should be well represented in the reserves, if nothing else. Aaron Judge has voter support despite his injuries. Paul Goldschmidt, somehow, feels like a no-brainer. Cam Schlittler has a genuine case to start for the American League on the mound.

Tampa deserves spots for Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda, in addition to Caminero. Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan and Nick Martinez could all represent the Rays as pitchers, too.

Willson Contreras, Aroldis Chapman and Ranger Suárez all have airtight résumés for Boston, but their low placement in the standings could prove consequential — especially in this division. Same for Baltimore, as all of Adley Rutschman, Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson being All-Stars feels like a stretch for such a middling team.

AL Central

The White Sox are a thing. And what a joyous thing it is! Nobody had any sort of expectations coming into the season, but the South Siders are proof that enough young talent, solid infrastructure and a few chips on shoulders can go a long way. Few teams play harder, and the upside of this group is palpable. It has been far too long since meaningful baseball was played on that end of Chicago.

As of now, the NL Central is a two-horse race. The White Sox are neck-and-neck with the Guardians, a model of small-market consistency. The Tigers and Royals are two of the toughest watches in MLB, by comparison. The Twins aren’t entirely out of the race, but Minnesota tipped its plans last summer, when management traded away half the roster at the deadline. We could see a similar approach over the next month.

All-Star impact

Munetaka Murakami has been on the shelf for a month and he still has the best résumé of any White Sox candidate. Unfortunately, he’s not due back from his hamstring injury for another two to four weeks. The All-Star Game in two weeks away, so he probably sits this year out.

Who else can represent Chicago? Well, Miguel Vargas is enjoying a revelatory campaign, with an .866 OPS and 3.0 fWAR. He should be a lock. The youth movement is strong as well; you can at least make a case for Colson Montgomery, Sam Antonacci and Chase Meidroth. The White Sox sticking atop the division should would help. Davis Martin should also have a spot in the AL rotation.

Cleveland is a more interesting debate. José Ramírez is on ice with a broken hand. Brayan Rocchio is impactful all around, but he’s not an exceptional hitter. Travis Bazzana has put up All-Star numbers, but he’s short on games played. It could end up being rookie ace Parker Messick as the only rep from a potential division winner, as odd as that sounds.

Minnesota has a set-and-forget potential starter in Byron Buxton. Detroit should get Kevin McGonigle and Dillon Dingler in lieu of Tarik Skubal, who probably missed too much time. Bobby Witt Jr. is on track to start for the AL at shortstop, as he should, but the rest of their roster is sparse on candidates. Jac Caglianone isn’t quite on that level yet. Daniel Lynch IV has a strong résumé out of the bullpen, but the Royals are unwatchable at times, which puts any fringe candidate, well, on the fringe.

AL West

The AL West probably takes the cake for “most depressing division in MLB” this season. The Rangers are playing .500 baseball and sit in first place. The Mariners were in the ALCS seven months ago. Now they’re struggling to tread water in the weakest division. The Astros are kind of like Rome before the fall: an empire in decline.

There is at least some competition here. Realistically all five of these teams could win the division. The Angels are cooked, but the A’s are full of super talented young guns. The Mariners are still the best team on paper. Houston has experience (and an MVP frontrunner in Yordan Álvarez). Texas, despite a middling outlook, has a ton of pitching talent and essentially controls its own destiny over the second half of the season.

All-Star impact

Shea Langeliers and Yordan Álvarez are the starting locks from this division.

Despite Houston’s struggles, Álvarez — 25 homers and 1.089 OPS — is the best hitter in MLB right now. He’s impenetrable. Álvarez destroys everything in the zone and hardly ever chases in detrimental ways. His blend of contact and power is unmatched, straight up. He finished second to Ernie Clement in the first round of fan voting, but he is Houston’s one guaranteed rep.

Langeliers, meanwhile, has taken up Cal Raleigh’s vacant throne as the AL’s top catcher with 19 homers and an .834 OPS. He has cooled off somewhat after an electric start to the year, but catcher is always a weak position. Langeliers easily stands out.

The first-place Rangers are probably hoping for MacKenzie Gore, Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi to all garner consideration on the mound. The lineup is light on worthy bats with Corey Seager in a season-long slump. Maybe Josh Jung can sneak into the mix at third base, but that’s a stretch.

In addition to Langeliers, Nick Kurtz (.948 OPS) should represent the A’s as a reserve. His ability to draw walks and get on base is genuinely historic. The Astros might only get Álvarez, as Jeremy Peña and Hunter Brown have missed too much time. Isaac Paredes has an outside shot, but third base is a loaded position in the AL.

The last-place Angels are probably out of luck with Mike Trout hurt again. That is a one All-Star team if I’ve ever seen one. It’s between Reid Detmers and José Soriano on the mound, with Detmers more deserving at this stage.

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