Business

Here’s Why Trump Is Likely To Win In A Tie-Breaker

November 1, 2024

Topline

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a dead heat in national polls and the seven swing states less than a week before Election Day—but there’s a slim chance of it ending in an Electoral College tie between the two candidates, and in the rare event there is one, it would likely lead to Trump becoming president.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event at the Resch Center on October 30, 2024 … [+] in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

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Key Facts

If the election ends in a tie with Trump and Harris receiving 269 electoral votes each, the House would vote to select the next president and the Senate would pick the vice president, with the House convening on Jan. 6, 2025.

Instead of the House holding a standard vote, each state delegation would pick a single candidate between the three who received the most electoral votes, per rules laid out in the 12th Amendment of the Constitution—meaning large states like California (52 House members) and Texas (38) have as much sway as states like Wyoming (just one member).

The 50 delegations would almost certainly vote along party lines, which would likely give Republicans the edge as they’re favored to control the majority of state delegations after Election Day (even as the race for which party controls the majority of seats in the House is closely contested).

The Senate, which is forecasted to flip to Republican control, would then vote to elect the vice president, who would need 51 votes to win.

If a candidate for president is unable to secure votes from 26 delegations before Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, and the Senate has already selected a vice president, that person would become acting president until the House vote is settled.

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Is A Tied Race Likely?

A 269-269 Electoral College tie is considered highly unlikely—Five Thirty Eight predicts a 1-in-300 chance. There are several scenarios that could result in a tie, including if Harris wins the states Biden won in 2020 except Michigan and Pennsylvania, or if Harris flips North Carolina and Trump wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada. There would also be a tie if Harris wins the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Trump wins the other four swing states plus Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, which covers Omaha and typically votes Democratic, while the rest of the state is reliably red.

What To Watch For

The election could also become “contingent” if a third-party candidate wins electoral votes and neither Trump nor Harris reach the 270-vote threshold to win. Based on polls, it’s near-impossible that voters in any state award electors to a third-party candidate, but about half of states do not legally require their electors to vote for the candidate voters selected, meaning if Trump and Harris each win 269 electors, some could go rogue and select a third-party candidate, who would then be in the running for the House vote. “Faithless electors” are rare, but not unprecedented—in the 2016 election, five pledged to Hillary Clinton and two pledged to Trump voted for other candidates.

Big Number

94. That’s the number of electoral votes up for grabs in the seven swing states, plus Nebraska’s 2nd District. If Harris wins all the non-swing states Biden won in 2020, as expected, she’d have 225 electoral votes, leaving Trump with 219.

Has An Electoral College Tie Ever Happened?

There hasn’t been an Electoral College tie since 1800, in the race between former President Thomas Jefferson and incumbent President John Adams, when Congress took 36 ballots to elect Jefferson. In 1824, multiple candidates won electoral votes, with Andrew Jackson receiving the most, but not the majority. The House instead elected John Quincy Adams.

Key Background

Each state is designated a total number of electors equal to its representation in the House and Senate, while the District of Columbia has three, for a total of 538. State political parties are tasked with nominating electors, typically at their state party conventions. The Constitution prohibits federal government employees and federally elected officials from serving as electors; the individuals are typically notable political figures, such as state and local elected officials. Electors are “pledged,” but not beholden to voting for their state’s winning candidate, though some states penalize “faithless electors” who go rogue and vote for another candidate. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that don’t use a winner-takes-all approach to awarding electors and instead allocate them based on a partially proportional system. Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district is considered hugely important in closely contested elections like this one, as it would give Harris exactly 270 electoral votes if she wins all the states Biden won, plus the “blue wall” of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, what’s considered her clearest path to victory.