Topline
Presidential election prediction markets continue to tilt in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris, whose odds have overtaken former President Donald Trump on one betting site for the first time in nearly a month, as polls indicate a practically tied race between the two candidates.
Election prediction markets have recently tilted toward Harris as Election Day nears.
Key Facts
PredictIt has placed a 51% chance of a Harris victory on Tuesday, marking the vice president’s first lead over Trump—who trails Harris at 49% odds—on the site since Oct. 9
Other betting markets still favor Trump in the presidential race: Trump leads Harris 59.5%-40.6% on Polymarket, 56%-44% on Kalshi—where Harris received a one-point boost on Saturday—and 58.2%-40.9% on Smarkets.
Harris has regained some ground on implied odds for the election in recent days, as Trump’s odds have fallen 4.1% to a seven-day low of 56.3%, according to Election Betting Odds, which tracks movements across the four markets and Betfair, which favors Trump over Harris at nearly 60% odds.
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Big Number
49%. That’s the odds FiveThirtyEight’s poll-based model gives Harris, implying she would win 49 times out of 100 election simulations, below Trump’s 50%. The Economist has Harris holding a 52%-48% edge over Trump, indicating she would win 52 times out of 100 simulations.
Key Background
Amid a close race between Harris and Trump, election betting has surged in popularity as odds shift in favor of Trump. Some experts have claimed the betting market is an indicator of the election’s outcome, while others believe bettors are incentivized to have their predictions become reality. Nate Silver, an analyst for Polymarket and a pollster whose latest forecast favors Harris, notes individual traders likely lean right politically, which could cause odds to be skewed in favor of Trump. Some markets have recently launched their own election betting platforms, including Robinhood and Interactive Brokers, while sites like Kalshi have been granted federal preemption to let users bet on elections in the U.S.
Further Reading
ForbesHarris Election Betting Odds Rise To Weekly High—But Trump Still Market’s FavoriteBy Derek SaulForbesTrump’s Polymarket Odds Top 60%: How Election Betting Markets Differ From PollsBy Derek Saul
