Forbes Daily: Market Winning Streaks Come As Recession Fears Ease

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Good morning,

Panic gripped markets earlier this month over worries of a potential recession. But if you ask Goldman economists now, concerns about the health of U.S. consumers are “greatly exaggerated.”

Over the weekend, a group of economists from the bank cut the probability of the U.S. entering a full-fledged recession in the next year from 25% to 20%. After the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 4.3% at the beginning of August, triggering a market selloff, they had upped the odds from 15% to 25%.

Since then, the concerns have been allayed by better-than-expected retail spending and fewer weekly unemployment claims. “When recession strikes, it usually strikes quickly,” says Goldman economist Jan Hatzius.

FIRST UP

AI chip darling Nvidia led a stock market rally Monday, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit their longest winning streaks since last year. The indexes continued to recover from their wipeout earlier this month, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 6% from its August 5 bottom, the S&P up 8% and the Nasdaq up more than 10%.

The SEC charged billionaire investor Carl Icahn and his holding company, Icahn Enterprises, after he allegedly failed to disclose stock pledges he used as collateral to secure personal margin loans worth billions. Icahn, who Forbes estimates is worth about $5.2 billion, and Icahn Enterprises agreed to pay $500,000 and $1.5 million, respectively, to settle the SEC’s charges, the agency said.

BUSINESS + FINANCE

When Sima Sistani took the helm as CEO of WeightWatchers in 2022, the iconic weight loss brand was facing an existential crisis. Declining membership, a pandemic-induced shift to digital offerings, substantial debt and the most formidable challenge of them all: the rise of GLP-1 weight loss drugs. Sistani is leading the company through a seismic shift, including acquiring a telehealth company specializing in weight loss medications and expanding beyond its decades-long emphasis on behavior modification alone.

WEALTH + ENTREPRENEURSHIP​​

Bernard Arnault, the billionaire chairman and CEO of luxury goods company LVMH, overtook Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg on Monday to become the third-richest person in the world, worth about $188.5 billion as of late afternoon. Shares of LVMH, the conglomerate that includes brands like Louis Vuitton and Tiffany & Co., are seeing a multi-day surge.

MONEY + POLITICS

Former President Donald Trump said Monday that he would offer either a Cabinet position or advisory role to Tesla CEO Elon Musk, as the world’s wealthiest man becomes an increasingly key political ally for the ex-president. In an interview with Reuters, Trump added that he doesn’t see tax credits and incentives as good things generally, but that he isn’t “making any final decisions on” the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit—which he tried to repeal when he was in office.

PLUS: The U.S. intelligence community said Monday it is confident Iran was responsible for the recently reported hack on Trump’s campaign and warned that Iran is increasingly trying to “shape the outcome” of the November election.

Former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) pleaded guilty Monday to wire fraud and identity theft after becoming the sixth person in history to be expelled from the U.S. House in December. Santos agreed to pay restitution of roughly $373,750, per CBS News, and admitted to making false statements to the FEC, committing wire fraud and fraudulently using IDs and credit cards for his personal benefit.

WORLD

President Joe Biden acknowledged pro-Palestinian protestors in his speech at the Democratic National Convention on Monday, saying they “have a point, a lot of innocent people are being killed, both sides.” Early during Biden’s speech, some protesting delegates were quickly removed from the venue after unfurling a banner that said “Stop Arming Israel,” Politico reported.

TRENDS + EXPLAINERS

Former President Donald Trump doubled down on his plan to raise tariffs on imported goods over the weekend, but most experts agree such taxes increase prices for consumers. A group of Goldman Sachs economists predicted prices on consumer goods would go up by 0.1% for every percentage increase in the effective tariff rate and raise inflation rates for one year. Goldman also said domestic prices would likely climb because U.S. manufacturers would “opportunistically” lift their prices.

The IRS has issued guidance based on new legislation allowing employers to make matching contributions to retirement plans based on employee student loan payments. The idea is that those repaying student loans may not be able to save for retirement. But under the new law, employers can treat student loan payments as though they are retirement contributions for purposes of an employer match.

DAILY COVER STORY

A Major U.S. Defense Investor Has Ties To Sanctioned Russian Oligarchs

TOPLINE Venture capital firm 8VC, which has invested in major U.S. government contractors like Palantir and Anduril, employs two children of sanctioned Russian oligarchs, Forbes has learned, raising questions about the proximity of foreign adversaries to the burgeoning defense tech scene in Silicon Valley.

In 2022, the firm hired Denis Aven, the son of Petr Aven—a banker currently worth more than $4.4 billion, Forbes estimates, who at the time had been sanctioned by the European Union and was later sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in 2023 for his role operating one of Russia’s largest commercial banks.

Also on the investment team is Jack Moshkovich, who joined in 2018, and is the son of billionaire Russian oligarch Vadim Moshkovich. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the elder Moshkovich was sanctioned by the EU, U.K., Switzerland, Canada and Australia over his alleged ties to the Kremlin and Russian President Vladimir Putin (Vadim Moshkovich has not been sanctioned in the U.S.).

Responding to an interview request for this story, 8VC’s managing partner and cofounder Joe Lonsdale posted a 950-word essay on X, saying 8VC has “a strict compliance and legal framework and always makes sure to respect and follow the law. We haven’t taken any money from their fathers or their fathers’ friends, and don’t need it.”

WHY IT MATTERS There is no indication that either of the sanctioned fathers have any financial relationship with the venture capital firm. But their sons’ roles at 8VC come as the U.S. government is increasingly scrutinizing foreign connections to the tech industry. Last month, the National Counterintelligence and Security Center issued a bulletin warning Silicon Valley startups about foreign adversaries using investment firms to access sensitive data and threaten national security.

MORE How The War In Ukraine Made These Billionaires Richer

FACTS + COMMENTS

As the new NFL season approaches, football fans across the U.S. might need a game day budget. Those planning to attend a game in-person in 2024 should expect to spend hundreds of dollars for a day at the stadium:

$227.66: The cost of the average game day experience at Levi’s Stadium, the home to the San Francisco 49ers and the most expensive stadium this season, according to an analysis from online casino NJBet

$123.84: The most affordable stadium experience—which includes the average cost of a general admission ticket, parking, a hot dog and a beer—comes at the Arizona Cardinals’ State Farm Stadium

1960: The Green Bay Packers have sold out season tickets every year since 1960, and the average game day at the iconic Lambeau Field will set you back $194.15

STRATEGY + SUCCESS

Even if you’re not actively looking for a new role right now, it’s a good idea to stay prepared, because you can’t perfectly time the job market. Start by thinking of your ideal next job: Identify employers that hire for the role you’re seeking, or if you want to enter a new field, consider going to a conference or taking a class. And go ahead and update your résumé and LinkedIn, and begin to strengthen your professional network now.

VIDEO

QUIZ

An outbreak of Oropouche virus, a little known and potentially dangerous disease, is spreading in South America, concerning scientists after the first human deaths from the virus were reported in Brazil. By what other name is the virus known?

A. Sloth fever

B. Jaguar virus

C. River dolphin disease

D. Howler cough

Check your answer.

Thanks for reading! This edition of Forbes Daily was edited by Sarah Whitmire and Chris Dobstaff.