Former President Donald Trump is running almost 30 percentage points ahead of his rivals for the Republican nomination race in Iowa less than three months before the caucuses.
It is the latest bad omen for the rest of the field of contenders who are battling to become the top alternative to Mr. Trump and, in some cases, are going all-in on a strong performance in the Jan. 15 Iowa caucus.
But there is still a glimmer of hope for the others, as more than half of the likely caucus-goers surveyed said they could change their minds in the coming months.
Mr. Trump is the preferred pick of 43% of likely Republican caucus-goers, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, both at 16%.
For his part, Mr. Trump is bypassing the expectations game and leaning into the idea that his victory in Iowa is a foregone conclusion.
“I go around saying, ‘Of course we’re going to win Iowa,’” Mr. Trump said at a campaign stop in Sioux City over the weekend. “My people said, ‘You cannot assume that.’”
“There’s no way Iowa is voting against Trump,” he added.
The poll showed Mr. Trump‘s support is more solid than that of his chief rivals, with 63% of his supporters saying they are sticking with him through the caucuses.
At the same time, 30% of DeSantis supporters and 26% of Haley supporters said they will not move.
More than 6 in 10 respondents said Mr. Trump could defeat President Biden in the general election, despite legal challenges that could land the former president in prison.
The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa was conducted Oct. 22-26.
Mr. DeSantis’ support ticked down slightly since August, while Ms. Haley’s is on the rise.
The rest of the field remains in the single digits, including Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, at 7%, who has made it clear Iowa will make or break his campaign.
The survey was done before former Vice President Mike Pence announced he was suspending his campaign, and his 2% support was reallocated to other candidates.
The poll of 404 likely caucus-goers had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
