ATLANTA, GA – JANUARY 11: Jrue Holiday #21 of the Milwaukee Bucks reacts during the first half … [+] against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena on January 11, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
Projecting the effects of age on individual players’ on-court performance remains an enigma, given its distinct impact and timing for each athlete. There are also a plethora of other factors involved, culminating in a player’s inevitable descent at some point in their career. Are there warning signs that Father Time has begun to stick his claws into Milwaukee Bucks’ point guard Jrue Holiday?
In his NBA Tiers rankings, The Athletic’s Seth Partnow recently spotlighted Holiday’s reduction in shots around the rim, seeing it as a hint of his athletic prowess taking a hit. It got me rolling those thoughts around even more.
Holiday, at 33 years old with just a year left on his contract plus a player option, has openly discussed the possibility of calling it quits when his contract wraps up. This chatter could be hinting at him sensing a shift in his game and getting ready for the next chapter. But are there more red flags waving in the wind?
Partnow’s insights have us thinking deeper about this. He delved into Cleaning The Glass’s data, which tracks the share of a player’s shots from various spots on the court. Back when Holiday first joined the Bucks in the 2020-21 season, 36 percent of his attempts were taken within three feet of the basket, according to Cleaning The Glass. That figure was slightly down from his New Orleans days, where he hung at 40 percent during his previous two seasons—an all-time high for him.
But here’s the kicker: over the last couple of years, that proportion has been nosediving. It plummeted to 30 percent in the 2021-22 season and then took another dive to a mere 26 percent last season—a career-low. Granted, he still stands above the point guard average when it comes to shots near the rim, but the downward trend is undeniably concerning.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom. His scoring efficiency on those close-range shots remains impressive. In fact, he clocked in a career-best field goal percentage within three feet of the hoop in 2022-23, knocking down an impressive 69 percent of those attempts.
As for other indicators of an athletic decline in Holiday’s game, that’s where the path gets a bit hazy.
Jrue Holiday’s shooting stats for the Milwaukee Bucks according to NBA.Com/Stats
My next stop on the investigation trail was to check if Holiday was struggling to create space from defenders, which could be another sign of declining athleticism. Curiously, the data paints a different picture. Rather than taking tougher shots, Holiday was putting up significantly more attempts categorized as “open” or “wide open” by the NBA, as opposed to the previous seasons. A solid 57.7 percent of his shots fell into this category, compared to around 51.5 percent during his prior two years with the Bucks.
Looking at his driving game, we see a slight dip in the number of his drives to the rim last season—going from 13 to 11.8—but this was still higher than his first year in Milwaukee, where he notched 10. Interestingly, he was better at converting these drives last season, aligning with the stats from Cleaning The Glass that spotlight his efficiency at point-blank range.
To counterbalance his dwindling shots near the basket, Holiday found solace in the land beyond the arc in 2022-23. Averaging a career-high 6.1 three-point attempts per game, he took his outside shooting to a new level. This was a marked increase from his previous high with the Bucks at 4.8.
A substantial portion of these shots were step-backs, as he seemed to have found his groove with this move. In fact, his pull-up three-point shots made up 27.9 percent of his total attempts from downtown last season, a notable rise from less than a quarter during his first two Milwaukee seasons.
Holiday is no spring chicken, that is known. He’s about to enter his 14th NBA season and has already logged a hefty 33,000 minutes between regular season and playoffs combined.
Considering the Bucks’ lack of a true backup point guard, the upcoming season will once again see Holiday carrying significant weight. With responsibilities ranging from ball-handling to locking down elite perimeter scorers, he’ll undoubtedly have his hands full.
Milwaukee is counting on him to be a big-time contributor and they can’t afford a decline from any of their stars if they want to win another Larry O’B. The question still lingers about whether Holiday will display more hints of a possible decline, and we won’t know the answer until the season plays out.
