Declan Rice is already becoming the subject of one of this summer’s biggest transfer sagas.
Premier League runners-up Arsenal thought they had their man a few days ago but, as they continue to haggle over the price with West Ham, Treble-winners Manchester City look ready to move with a bid of their own.
The England midfielder, fresh off the back of becoming only the third West Ham captain to lift a trophy, looks set to become the second most expensive Englishman ever after Jack Grealish with the Hammers seemingly wanting at least £90m.
His last game for West Ham saw him lead them to the Europa Conference League crown with a 2-1 win over Fiorentina.
The 24-year-old would likely become Arsenal’s record capture, beating Nicolas Pepe’s £75m signing, or Man City’s second-most expensive signing after Grealish.
BBC Sport’s Simon Stone said: “Arsenal, clearly, are in pole position. It is felt most of the negotiation around the transfer from a player perspective is done.
“Man City’s interest is real though, even if, with Rodri, Mateo Kovacic and Kalvin Phillips, they are not exactly short of central midfield options, despite the departure of Ilkay Gundogan for Barcelona. It would be easy, for instance, to see David Moyes being interested in Phillips, even though the England man says he is committed to City.
“Arsenal’s problem is this; they can feel confident in their position, continue to chip away at West Ham and hope eventually, the answer is ‘yes’. But that comes with risk. What if Pep Guardiola makes a persuasive pitch? Would Rice really turn down the Treble winners, who have the ability to pay more than Arsenal because they generate more income?
“It is easy to dismiss the current situation as [West Ham] owner David Sullivan trying to drive up the price of a player he knows is leaving. However, for Arsenal, the stakes are high – and they need to get their reaction right.”
Losing Rice to their title rivals would clearly be a big blow for the Gunners, but why is he in such demand and where he would fit best?
How good is he?
Rice’s development over the last few years has been notable, having been released by Chelsea aged 14 for being too small and not athletic enough.
In 2018 the Londoner was playing for the Republic of Ireland and often deployed at centre-back – but since then he has become an automatic pick for England in the heart of midfield and West Ham’s talismanic captain.
Former England midfielder Owen Hargreaves, speaking to BT Sport after the Europa Conference League final, said: “He [Rice] would start in every Premier League team apart from Man City because Rodri is one of the best in the world.
“He can become one of the best in the world as a defensive midfielder though. That is his position, he’s not going to be a number 10 or eight.”
Another ex-England midfielder in Joe Cole was at both Chelsea and West Ham when Rice was in their respective youth academies.
“He has added goals to his game and can just do everything,” said Cole. “Any team in Europe would have him in their team.”
Last season Rice won possession more times (334) and made more interceptions (63) than any other Premier League player.
Only three players – Brighton centre-back Lewis Dunk and Man City duo Rodri and Grealish – carried the ball more than Rice’s 7.1km. His England team-mate Bukayo Saka was fifth on 6.8km.
Former West Ham defender Julian Dicks, part of the coaching staff when Rice broke into the team in 2017, told BBC Radio 5 Live: “He very rarely gives the ball away. That’s great for a midfield player.”
Rice has played 245 games and scored 15 goals – with five of them coming last season – for West Ham.
He is also the ninth youngest player to reach 200 Premier League appearances.
Where would he fit in for the champions?
The big question on most people’s lips since Man City’s late interest is where would he play for the champions?
Guardiola is about to lose key midfielder and captain Gundogan to Barcelona but, with a £30m deal already agreed for Chelsea’s Kovacic, City seem well equipped in midfield.
As one of the club’s key performers last season, Rodri would be unlikely to make way for Rice next season. The Spanish midfielder out-performed Rice – and almost every midfielder in the league – on carries, duels, possession and possession won per 90 minutes last season.
Could his signing be the end of the very successful John Stones in midfield experiment? Rice would be more than capable of playing alongside Rodri and would allow Stones to return to a more defensive role – especially if there are defensive departures from either Kyle Walker or Aymeric Laporte. Stones, though, has excelled in his new midfield role and it would be a surprise to see him revert to just a defender.
As well as the imminent arrival of Kovacic, City also have England midfielder Phillips waiting in the wings – having made just two Premier League starts last season. Rice would not want a repeat of that situation and a season on the bench.
He is also capable of playing further forward but, with just two assists and four goals for the Hammers last season, he is unlikely to be a serious alternative to the likes of Bernardo Silva, Riyad Mahrez or Kevin de Bruyne.
| How Rice and Man City midfielders compared (per 90 minutes in 2022-23 Premier League) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice | Rodri | Silva | Gundogan | Stones | Phillips | Kovacic | |
| Successful passes | 50.5 | 83.7 | 51.6 | 51.9 | 68.6 | 89.4 | 59.4 |
| Touches | 71.3 | 103.7 | 75.3 | 71.6 | 83.3 | 111 | 82.1 |
| Total carries | 16.4 | 21.6 | 20.2 | 14.8 | 21.4 | 21 | 20.4 |
| Tackles | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Interceptions | 1.7 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Possession won | 9.2 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 6.4 |
| Passing accuracy | 88% | 92% | 89.1% | 88.2% | 93.2% | 92.6% | 86% |
A clear fit for Arsenal?
So how does he compare to his rivals for a place in the Arsenal team? Things seem a lot clearer.
With Granit Xhaka playing further forward these days, Thomas Partey and Jorginho were the Gunners’ defensive midfielders last season.
Ghana’s Partey and Italy’s Jorginho played more successful passes and touched the ball more – but they played in a team who won 26 games to West Ham’s 11.
Rice won the ball more times, created more chances and had a slightly better passing accuracy than the pair. Both have also been linked with moves away from Emirates.
| How Rice and Arsenal midfielders compared (per 90 minutes in 2022-23 Premier League) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice | Thomas Partey | Jorginho | |
| Successful passes | 50.5 | 62 | 58.6 |
| Touches | 71.3 | 85.4 | 80.5 |
| Chances created | 1 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Tackles | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Interceptions | 1.7 | 1 | 1.3 |
| Possession won | 9.2 | 8.2 | 7.9 |
| Passing accuracy | 88.1% | 88% | 86.3% |
Rice is unlikely to be utilised in a more attacking role after the signing of Kai Havertz from Chelsea for £65m.
Germany international Havertz, who can play as an attacking midfielder, on the wing or a false nine, scored 32 goals in 139 games for Chelsea – including the winner in the 2021 Champions League final against Manchester City.
He was the Blues’ joint top scorer last season with nine goals.
‘Automatic starter’ or ‘guaranteed success’
BBC Sport’s Simon Stone: “At City, he would be almost guaranteed success – but given the strength of their squad – if the transition does not go smoothly, game time might be difficult. Phillips is the obvious example of that but 12 months ago, Grealish, was in a similar position, on the bench for the biggest games even though he had been used more often overall.
“At Arsenal, he would be central to manager Mikel Arteta’s plans, an automatic choice, as he was at West Ham, and a captain in waiting. In addition, there would be no relocation which, given he has a young family, may also be a factor.
“The problem with making decisions like this one is that there is no right or wrong and the wisdom of whichever path he chooses will only be determined years after the event.”
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