HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 02: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros flies out against the Detroit … [+] Tigers in the fourth inning during Game Two of the Wild Card Series at Minute Maid Park on October 02, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
It’s a fool’s errand to choose between a top prospect and a 30-year-old who has been worth an average of 5.2 WAR every full season of his career. But fortunately for the Cubs, they don’t have to choose between Matt Shaw and Alex Bregman.
They have room for both their 2023 first-round pick and the free agent who has hit six World Series home runs for the Astros. As an added feature, they even have the payroll flexibility after trading Cody Bellinger to the Yankees and parting ways with Kyle Hendricks.
But will Tom Ricketts and Jed Hoyer make a deal with Bregman, who reportedly turned down a six-year, $156-million deal from the Astros before filing for free agency?
It’s easy to say Hoyer should add Bregman onto Kyle Tucker, who he acquired from the Astros in a trade in December. Tucker is most likely a one-year rental in Chicago — he will be eligible for free agency after the season, and could be in line for a $300-million deal — and Shaw, who is currently penciled in at third base, is versatile enough to play a Ben Zobrist role in the upcoming season.
It is fairly easy to make the case for Bregman, who is being pursued by the Cubs, Tigers, Red Sox and Blue Jays, according to reporters Jon Heyman and Bob Nightengale. There are worse problems than having a crowded lineup.
It’s worth noting the Cubs could have a ton of payroll flexibility in two years. Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner and right-hander Jameson Taillon — earning a combined $69.5 million this season — all are positioned to become free agents after 2026.
So the questions for Hoyer are how do you project Bregman’s production into his mid-30s and can you trust the cast of young hitters you have collected enough to pass on him.
Make no mistake: Bregman (like Tucker) is not showing major signs of slippage. He won first Gold Glove last season, which marked the first time in three seasons he didn’t receive any MVP votes. Since the pandemic season in 2020, he’s delivered a 122 OPS+ with a slash line of .262/.350/.444 and only 36 more strikeouts than walks.
The major projection models all call for Bregman to hit 21-plus home runs while playing 128-159 games next season, worth 3.4-4.1 WAR. It’s easy to imagine what that could mean playing alongside Tucker, Dansby Swanson and Hoerner, who have all turned in 4-WAR seasons within the last two years.
But Shaw is no slouch himself. He is set to make his big-league debut in March, when the Cubs visit Tokyo, but has hit 29 home runs in his 159 games as a pro, with a .906 OPS. Steamer projects him to hit .250 with 14 home runs in 130 games as a rookie.
Adding Bregman would allow Shaw to upgrade a bench that recently got an upgrade with the signing of free agent Jon Berti, who like Shaw and Bregman is a right-handed hitter. Shaw could even wind up being sent back to Triple-A, where he’d join Owen Caissie, Moises Ballsteros, James Triantos and possibly also Kevin Alcantara in a lineup loaded with Top-100 prospects.
The Cubs opened 2024 with a payroll of $214.4 million. They currently have about $180 million on the books, assuming the recent acquisition of high-leverage reliever Ryan Pressly — also from the Astros — becomes official.
The question for the Cubs with Bregman isn’t whether they can afford him. It’s how much do they want him.
