Winter crop production is forecast to rise to near-record levels in parts of the country, driven by bumper seasons in New South Wales and Queensland.
The federal Department of Agriculture’s September crop report shows national production is projected to increase to 55.2 million tonnes in 2024-25, 17 per cent above the 10-year average, compared to about 46 million tonnes last season.
But the huge increases in New South Wales and Queensland are overshadowing a different reality for those in Victoria and South Australia, with farmers just hoping to meet costs after battling unfavourable weather.
Large parts of South Australia and Victoria have experienced dry conditions through winter, with low and late rainfall leading to moisture stress and below-average crop yields.
John Lush says a lack of rainfall in the Adelaide Plains has put his crops two months behind schedule. (ABC News: Brant Cumming)
Adelaide Plains farmer John Lush said he had seen his fair share of success during more than 50 years on the land but he would struggle to break even this year.
However, Mr Lush acknowledged it came after three stellar harvests.
He said his farm had received about half of its usual rain this year.
“So that means our crops will only have 50 per cent of the yield or less,” he said.
The average annual rainfall in Mallala is 370 millimetres, but according to the Bureau of Metrology, only 160mm had been recorded to the end of August.
“Anybody who didn’t put some money in the bank over the last three years is in trouble,” Mr Lush said.
Mr Fielke says farmers can’t have rain all the time. (ABC Riverland: Will Hunter)
Fourth-generation farmer Tom Fielke said he was used to riding the wave of marginal farming in a region that experienced lower-than-average rainfall.
Annual falls at his South Australia-Victoria border property averaged 250mm but to date, he had only received 105mm.
He said while rainfall had been low, his crop yield could still reach his average for the upcoming harvest if the spring rain came.
“What we need is a really kind September, not much wind and some good dewy mornings,” Mr Fielke said.
“It’s a statewide conversation where everyone just needs that decent rain.”
Wheat production in NSW is up 55 per cent, according to winter crop forecasts. (ABC News: Lucy Thackray)
Harvest winners and losers
Winter crop production in Queensland and New South Wales — where the majority of rain has fallen this year — was forecast to have the third-highest production on record.
Wheat, chickpeas and lentils were among their strongest commodities for these states.
However, due to below-average rainfall in South Australia and Victoria, all crop yields except lentils were expected to fall.
Jared Greenville says Australia is one of the most variable countries to farm. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)
Department of Agriculture executive director Jared Greenville said farmers were bound to experience a bad harvest at some point, regardless of location.
“When you compare our production systems to production systems elsewhere across the globe … we operate in one of the most variable climates in the world,” Dr Greenville said.
“You can have fantastic years, but then you can have some really harsh years.
“Being resilient to those is a core part of the DNA to being in the business of Australian agriculture.”
Spring to ‘make or break’ harvest
Brad Perry says South Australia’s cropping season hinges on spring weather. (ABC News: Marco Catalano)
Grain Producers South Australia chief executive Brad Perry said spring would make or break most producers’ harvests.
“It’s either going to be a really quick finish to harvest if it remains dry, or if we do get some good rain it will likely push it into a December-January harvest,” Mr Perry said.
“There’ll be challenges either way.”
Back in the Adelaide Plains, John Lush has been preparing for the harvest ahead.
He said although spring rainfall was unlikely to change the outcome of his crops, he would remain positive.
“South Australian farmers are probably some of the most resilient farmers in the world,” he said.
“We will get through this.”
