SAO PAULO — For 38-year-old Leandro Valdivia, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ’s pre-election crackdown on fixed-odds betting came too late to save his marriage or $26,000 from his bank account. Still, he has anxiously checked the news since the government’s ban was announced on Friday, fearing a judge will strike it down.
Brazil’s betting market is in turmoil since Lula, nine days before the first round of presidential elections, signed an order to ban all platforms. In a tightly contested election, that prohibition is one of the few measures of his that even supporters of rival Flávio Bolsonaro support. And that could be decisive ahead of Sunday’s tight vote.
Brazil’s government said on Monday it had removed 506 websites that allegedly continued to offer the service. Lula’s decision ends the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of betting. It will need congressional approval within 120 days to remain in effect — and no objections from any judge in the nation.
Valdivia, a healthcare professional who talks to dozens of online gamblers each week to help them leave the addiction, started placing bets during the 2022 World Cup. He used to gamble about 100 Brazilian reais ($20) in each game and did make a profit. He led himself to believe he understood what made volleyball tick, and that could someday earn him a fortune.
But two years later each of Valdivia’s gambles jumped to 10,000 reais ($2,000), and he was not winning any of it back. He was constantly lying to his partner about losing money. He had to give away his small media company and stopped talking to his friends. After he divorced, his cousins intervened; they installed an app to ban betting from his mobile and computer. Since last year, he is in recovery.
“This is an addiction that doesn’t give you bad breath. You don’t talk funny, you don’t smell. Nobody finds it strange if you stay on your phone all day,” Valdivia, who still has debts of 30,000 Brazilian reais ($5,700), said in a phone interview.
“It is hard for our judges and for congress to keep this in place. But maybe this ban stays long enough for us to feel the impact in the economy and in people’s mental health,” said Valdivia, who plans to vote for Lula.
Brazil has one of the world’s biggest online betting markets, which made more than $4 billion in revenues in 2025, according to an institute that represents most of the platforms operating in the South American nation. The country’s central bank argues it is even more; about 30 billion reais ($5.7 billion) spent on bets each month. That figure included spending by beneficiaries of the cash-transfer federal welfare program Bolsa Familia (Family Grant), which was blocked from those platforms last year.
About 2 million Brazilians are addicted to those platforms, a study of Sao Paulo University said in August.
Creomar de Souza, a political analyst with Dharma Political Risk and Strategy, a consultancy firm based in Brasilia, said despite Lula’s criticism to betting companies, it is clear he picked an electoral moment to do it. He argues many polls have shown that more than 70% of Brazilians favor banning all betting platforms.
“The ban doesn’t hurt Lula at all, we need some more time to see whether it does help him in the election as voters digest,” said de Souza, who added Brazil’s president himself pushed for the regulation of betting companies only two years ago.
“If Congress tosses this order, it doesn’t hurt Lula either. He can take some advantage and make pressure, cast himself as an anti-system candidate in an election that should be close.”
One staffer of Brazil’s government told The Associated Press that Lula did consider a partial ban, but changed course after top division soccer clubs said in a joint statement last week that removing those platforms would mean the end of “futebol,” the nation’s biggest passion. All 20 clubs in Brazil’s Serie A are sponsored by sports betting platforms. The staffer spoke under condition of anonymity for lack of authorization to speak publicly.
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Few Brazilians have publicly antagonized the move due to evident hazards brought by online betting to the country’s economy and mental health. Even presidential hopeful Flávio Bolsonaro avoided criticizing the merits of the decision. But betting companies are preparing to challenge the move in different courts, as a group and individually.
Matheus Puppe, an expert in Brazil’s digital law, said he expects Lula’s order to be struck down soon due to several issues in totally banning a sector from the economy without a transition. If a court doesn’t do it, he says, congress might just not vote on it and let the order expire.
“It was abrupt, the government did not return the license fee paid by the platforms, it did not care for the workers of those companies,” Puppe said. “There are many grounds to question this.”
“But it will be hard to see any judge doing it before Sunday,” he added.
Valdivia agrees the risks for the order are high. He argues it is needed since few addicts choose to stop without some help from family and friends.
Puppe said banning legal platforms “will only make people look for the illegal ones.”
Still, the ban makes it much harder for those who are not tech savvy to continue placing their bets, which changes the size of the market dramatically.
“I remember when I realized my then partner knew what was happening to me. We were cycling in Buenos Aires, we saw an ad about the risks of online betting and she just hopped off and gave me a hug,” Valdivia recalls.
“I am recovering. But I could be speaking to you with my partner still with me, we’d have a child by now, and I would have spent that money in a house for us by the beach. That I will never recover.”
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