All three first quarters of 2024, Sweden’s climate emissions increased. This marks a major shift for Sweden, which since 1990 has reduced emissions by a third while at the same time improving living conditions substantially—the theory of decoupling economic growth from climate impact was put into practice here. No longer so – but the EU may put Sweden back on track.
Abolished ambitions
Sweden’s ambition to become “the world’s first fossil free welfare state” was recently abolished, but the more substantial climate target stands. By 2045, Sweden is to achieve net zero climate impact—a full five years ahead of the EU, where Sweden currently celebrates its 30th anniversary as a member (the EU and Swedish target are not perfectly compatible, but the lead in ambition is undeniable). By 2030, Sweden is to reach a “fossil-free transport sector” which translates into a 70% emissions reduction in the transport sector between 2010 and 2030. All transports, mind you, not just cars and not merely the vehicles being sold henceforth.
The targets were decided in 2017 by a Parliament vote of 299 for and only 50 against; seven parties from the left to the right agreed and an eighth party—the Sweden Democrats—has since joined. The key argument for climate leadership was not so much about future generations, polar bears (contrary to popular belief, not to be found in Sweden) or flygskam, the term coined by Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg. It was about relevance—with only 0.13% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, what Sweden does only really matters if others follow.
Industry buy-in
The other reason for such far-reaching climate targets was industry buy-in. Leading manufacturer Scania sells only 3% of its trucks in Sweden, but it is the showcase needed to sell the remaining 97%, and others have similar stories. Just before the government’s climate meeting in 2023, businesses reached consensus on the 2030 target being the most important for competitiveness—other targets are too far into the future to directly influence many business plans.
With this buy-in from business, it would seem evident that Sweden’s consecutive governments would do their very best to deliver on the targets, particularly since climate targets and frontrunner ambitions have strong, unwavering support from citizens, as evidenced by the bi-annual surveys from the Environmental Protection Agency.
In the 2010s, Sweden had the world’s fastest movement away from fossil fuels, and while neighboring Norway, Denmark and Finland did better in terms of new electric cars, biking or bioeconomy, respectively, Sweden did best in all things combined. The trajectories followed the governmental initiative Fossil Free Sweden’s 2030 roadmaps, developed for each major sector of the economy and updated when external factors change – which has until now consistently meant an increased suggested pace of change.
Until 2022, emissions reductions largely followed the trajectory needed to meet the 2030 target and net zero 2045—the net meaning that 15% can happen elsewhere as long as Sweden foots the bill and owns the emission rights, stressing the need for a complementary international approach.
It’s politics
That Sweden’s emissions are up is politics: the 2022 elections were won on the promise of cheaper petrol and diesel. This was achieved by lowering the taxation on fossil fuels and drastically reducing the reduction quota, establishing how much companies selling fossil fuels must improve their climate performance year on year by blending in sustainable renewables.
Had this been the only emissions-increasing measure, reductions might still have occurred, but on the 8th of November, 2022, incentives for buying electric cars were abolished overnight. After that, the market share of EVs, which is up elsewhere, is down in Sweden, and electric cars already on the market are being exported in record numbers. Incentives were also abolished for vehicles powered by biogas from household waste, sewage and manure—an area where Sweden has long been world-leading but where new car sales are now down, reaching 0.0 percent of the market in January 2025.
Sales of new electric cars are down in Sweden, while exports of existing EVs are up.
Swedish brands Scania and Volvo both have a full range of electric trucks, and the government has launched economic incentives for buying them – but only 6.5% of new trucks were electric in 2024. The reason? With the cheapest fossil diesel in the region, fleet owners struggle to make a business case of going electric.
Just prior to the 2022 elections, a seven-party agreement in parliament much like the climate pact was settled, addressing the financial compensation for professional traveling needs—this tool that is unknown to most countries has been deemed necessary since Sweden is a country of long distances and few people. Historically, it almost exclusively went to people commuting by car, with a much lower compensation for those going by public transport and absolutely nothing for those biking or walking. This was to be addressed, with the same amount regardless of the mode of transport chosen, but, once installed, the new administration chose to ignore this decision (the government is entitled to do so; in formal terms no wrongdoing has occurred).
Can’t meet the targets? Revise them
If the targets are abolished, Sweden cannot fail to meet them. This seems to be the logic of the just-announced revision of Sweden’s climate targets where particularly the 2030 transport target may be revised or abolished altogether. At the launch of the initiative, Sweden’s climate minister Romina Pourmokhtari emphasized that ambitions are not to be reduced, but few seem convinced. In October, the proposal will be presented, just in time for the government to push through legislation before the Swedish elections in September, 2026 —it remains to be seen whether the government really wants to face the voters with watered-down climate ambitions.
Meanwhile, the EU has set climate demands that Sweden must adhere to, particularly that emissions from transport and agriculture must be reduced by 50 percent between 2005 and 2030. As the appetite for reducing food production is limited with Russia’s war on Ukraine next door, the target essentially has to be reached within the transport sector, using measures similar to what was just abolished.
Keep the money
While the national targets can be revised or scrapped, failure to comply with EU demands would mean that Sweden either has to buy emissions rights from other countries overachieving—at the moment this seems to be Greece—or pay hefty EU fines. Even the few parliamentarians that disagree with Sweden’s climate leadership ambitions seem to agree on this one: better to use the money in Sweden’s own economy than to send them to Athens or Brussels. By willingness or necessity, Sweden may soon be back on track for climate leadership.
Sweden must reduce emissions from the transport sector to meet EU demands.
