A test for ‘mano dura’ politics?
Seeking re-election, President Daniel Noboa centres Ecuador’s crime wave
Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa addresses supporters during his closing campaign event in Quito, Ecuador, on February 6 [Karen Toro/Reuters]
Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa addresses supporters during his closing campaign event in Quito, Ecuador, on February 6 [Karen Toro/Reuters]
Quito, Ecuador – Under his brief tenure as president, Ecuador has suffered 14-hour daily blackouts. Violent prison riots. And a diplomatic spat with Mexico that drew international criticism.
But Daniel Noboa, 37, is sailing into Sunday’s presidential election on a crest of continued popularity.
For the past 14 months, Noboa has led Ecuador during a period of crisis. Crime remains stubbornly high. Drug trafficking continues to encroach on the country’s territory. And Noboa’s own actions have raised questions about the deterioration of human rights and presidential overreach.
And yet, his overall approval rating sits comfortably north of 50 percent, according to the polling firm Comunicaliza.
Of more than a dozen rival candidates in Sunday’s race, only one real challenger has emerged: Luisa Gonzalez, his left-wing adversary from the last election.
Experts attribute Noboa’s frontrunner status to several factors, but especially his iron-fisted — or “mano dura” — approach to crime.
“Security has been a constant theme for this government,” said Beatriz Garcia Nice, an Ecuador-based associate at the Wilson Center, a think tank. “And it has absorbed much of its focus.”
Still, the ways Noboa has expressed that heavy-handed style has spurred outcry — and signalled potential weaknesses in his campaign.
From dark horse to frontrunner
Supporters wear Noboa’s trademark purple and hold up cardboard cut-outs of the president at his closing campaign rally on February 6 [Mie Hoejris Dahl/Al Jazeera]
Supporters wear Noboa’s trademark purple and hold up cardboard cut-outs of the president at his closing campaign rally on February 6 [Mie Hoejris Dahl/Al Jazeera]
The son of a billionaire banana magnate, Noboa came to power under unprecedented circumstances.
In May 2023, his predecessor, President Guillermo Lasso, made the drastic decision to dissolve both his government and the National Assembly rather than face impeachment hearings.
No president had ever exercised that power before. And it cut short Noboa’s very first term as a legislator in the National Assembly.
But he launched a dark-horse presidential bid that very same month, building a coalition of centre and conservative-leaning parties.
The clear leader in that race was Gonzalez, a seasoned politician who had previously served a decade in the administration of President Rafael Correa.
But in the first round of voting, Noboa gathered enough votes to advance to the run-off. And in the final face-off with Gonzalez, he pulled off an upset, defeating her 52 percent to 48.
That victory allowed Noboa to serve out the rest of Lasso’s term: 18 months. At age 35, he had become the youngest elected president in Ecuador’s history.
Experts, however, say that his inexperience showed.
“He arrived without a plan, without a proper team,” said Sebastian Hurtado, president of Profitas, a political risk consultancy firm in Ecuador. “He improvised decisions.”
Garcia Nice also observed a lack of political finesse, particularly in times of crisis.
“You immediately see the inexperience in his management,” Garcia Nice said, pointing to the way Noboa handled Ecuador’s electricity crisis last year.
A historic drought had depleted Ecuador’s ability to generate hydroelectric power. Still, Noboa assured the nation that power outages would cease — but the blackouts continued for months, eroding public trust.
By November, frustrated residents flooded the streets in Quito, shouting “Fuera Noboa”, a slogan that translates to “Out with Noboa”.
‘A difficult situation’
Daniel Noboa speaks to supporters at the Plaza de Toros in Quito at his closing campaign event on February 6 [Mie Hoejris Dahl/Al Jazeera]
Daniel Noboa speaks to supporters at the Plaza de Toros in Quito at his closing campaign event on February 6 [Mie Hoejris Dahl/Al Jazeera]
Even before Noboa entered Quito’s presidential palace, however, the biggest challenge facing his first term was clear.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Ecuador has experienced a slumping economy and skyrocketing crime.
“Noboa got thrust into a difficult situation,” said Hurtado.
Whereas once Ecuador was renowned for its low rates of violence, by 2023, it had the highest homicide rate of any South American country. The nonprofit Insight Crime estimates that 47 Ecuadorians were killed for every 100,000 residents.
One of the victims that year was a fellow presidential candidate, Fernando Villavicencio. He was assassinated while leaving a rally.
Noboa’s election did little to damper the crime wave. Less than two months into his term, authorities discovered a notorious gang leader, Jose Adolfo Macias Villamar, had escaped from prison.
In the days that followed, prison riots erupted, and masked assailants attacked a TV station during a live broadcast. The incident, captured on rolling cameras, shocked the nation.
Garcia Nice credits the raid on the TV station, along with Villavicencio’s assassination, with galvanising public support for Noboa’s government.
“Both legitimised Noboa and his mano dura approach to crime,” Garcia Nice said.
Noboa responded to the outbreak by declaring a “war” against Ecuador’s gangs, labelling them “terrorist groups”.
He issued successive states of emergency, and in April, voters overwhelmingly backed ballot measures he put forward to increase the military presence in law enforcement and increase criminal penalties.
‘Authoritarian tendencies’
Heavily armed military members guard the stage at Noboa’s final campaign event on February 6 [Mie Hoejris Dahl/Al Jazeera]
Heavily armed military members guard the stage at Noboa’s final campaign event on February 6 [Mie Hoejris Dahl/Al Jazeera]
That “mano dura” approach has shown limited results. The homicide rate in 2024 dropped nearly 20 percent — but figures remain high above pre-pandemic levels.
In January this year, Ecuador experienced a new surge, marking the most violent month in the country’s history.
The increased powers for law enforcement have also spurred questions about possible abuses of authority.
“While gang violence remains at horrific levels, security forces have carried out grave human rights violations including extrajudicial executions, enforced disappearances and torture,” said Juan Pappier, deputy director of the Americas division at Human Rights Watch.
One of the most recent controversies involves the abduction and murder of four young boys in Guayaquil after a football game. Surveillance footage appeared to show uniformed soldiers grabbing two of the boys. Their four bodies were later found burned near a military base.
The armed forces claimed the boys were arrested for committing a robbery, though they offered no proof.
Noboa himself has courted international scandal, by authorising a police raid on the Mexican embassy in Quito. Embassies, however, are protected spaces under international law, and the move prompted Mexico to sever its diplomatic relations with Ecuador.
“He has authoritarian tendencies and has no qualms about ignoring laws, rules or conventions,” Hurtado said.
Carla Larrea, a vice presidential candidate for the centre-right Construye Movement, put it another way: “He’s making some erratic decisions.”
Battling ‘old politics’
Betty Giovanna Mosquera, 46, and a friend pose in front of a cardboard cut-out of Noboa [Mie Hoejris Dahl/Al Jazeera]
Betty Giovanna Mosquera, 46, and a friend pose in front of a cardboard cut-out of Noboa [Mie Hoejris Dahl/Al Jazeera]
Noboa has continued to weather controversy about the limits of his authority through the end of his latest campaign.
Ecuador’s constitution requires that public officials take a leave of absence to run for re-election.
But Noboa instead signed two executive decrees to avoid transferring power to his vice president, Veronica Abad, with whom he is feuding. Just this week, the Constitutional Court of Ecuador declared both unconstitutional.
After the ruling, the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE), a powerful Indigenous rights coalition, blasted Noboa for treating the presidency like “a private hacienda”.
“No authoritarian manoeuvre can hide the truth: Noboa’s government is riddled with irregularities, abuses and contempt for democracy,” CONAIE wrote in a statement.
“We have never trusted this government,” the acting president of CONAIE, Zenaida Yasacama, told Al Jazeera. “As a woman, his treatment of his vice president has hurt me.”
Still, Noboa has campaigned for a second, full term on the basis that he will declare war against “the old politics” of Ecuador.
On advertisements, Noboa stands in a white T-shirt against a purple background, next to slogans for “one single round” — an appeal to voters to make Sunday’s victory so massive, no run-off election is needed.
It’s a pointedly informal look, one designed to appeal to Ecuador’s younger generations. Garcia Nice explained that young voters are particularly fond of Noboa. Some even carry cardboard cut-outs of the leader.
In a country where the average voting age is 28 and 16-year-old teenagers are eligible to vote, that demographic could provide a significant advantage at the polls.
Yet, Noboa’s charisma as a young leader will only take him so far, Hurtado warned.
If he succeeds in winning a full four-year term this year, he will no longer enjoy the benefit of the doubt that comes with being a relative newcomer to politics.
“If he doesn’t resolve the country’s big challenges, his popularity will decline,” Hurtado said.
