In short
Avian influenza has killed millions of birds and mammals across the world.
So far, it hasn’t reached Australia’s Antarctic territory and its sub-Antarctic islands, but scientists are concerned the virus could spread to those areas as soon as this spring.
What’s next?
A team of experts is preparing for the highly contagious H5N1 virus to reach those areas. They say it’s difficult to know “how grim it’s going to be when it arrives”.
Inside the headquarters of the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), dozens of experts have gathered for a simulated emergency.
They’re here to wargame their response to an outbreak of avian influenza on Macquarie Island — something they fear could become reality within months.
“It’s an evolving scenario,” AAD operations manager Robb Clifton said of the training exercise.
It begins with 10 petrels being found dead on a remote tip of the island.
A short time later, 200 deceased penguins are located.
By the end of the day, a dead skua is discovered near the island’s research station.
“So it starts off with a number of instances of dead wildlife being encountered that are showing very likely signs of avian influenza,” Mr Clifton said.
“[It then builds] up to where we think we’re at real risk of transmission into the human population because of the proximity of the wildlife on Macquarie Island.”
While the risk of animal-to-human transmission is low, the consequences could be severe, particularly in such a remote location.
For that reason, Mr Clifton said advanced planning and simulated training were essential.
“For us, it’s about getting on the front foot,” he said.
“Obviously, logistics to Antarctica and Macquarie Island aren’t easy.
“It’s making sure our people have got the right equipment, they’ve got access to the right experts, but also they’ve got the right training.”
‘It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when’
The highly contagious H5N1 strain of avian influenza has already killed millions of birds and mammals across the world.
In February, it was detected for the first time on the Antarctic Peninsula, but it is yet to reach Australia’s Antarctic territory and sub-Antarctic islands.
However, scientists are concerned the virus could spread to those areas as early as this spring.
“It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when it arrives in these locations,” AAD seabird expert Louise Emmerson said.
Once that happens, the consequences for animals, including seals, penguins and other seabirds, could be significant.
“Where we’ve seen it go through areas in the past, it’s had a very devastating impact on many of the species, including up to 90 per cent, and in excess of 90 per cent, mortality of wildlife.”
Despite such statistics, Dr Emmerson said other variables made it difficult to predict the impact of future outbreaks.
“It’s really hard to know how grim it’s going to be when it arrives,” she said.
“It could be mass mortality that has a very significant impact on populations, or it may not be the case.
“It just depends on how robust the populations are, how healthy they are when it hits them, and how susceptible they are.”
Team to ‘bear witness’ to bird flu in Australia’s territory
In the coming months, she and other bird experts will be deployed to different parts of the Australian Antarctic Territory to check for signs of the virus and monitor its impact once it arrives there.
She knows it will likely be a confronting task.
“It’s hard to see the animals that you’ve been monitoring for years, sick, dying, or the population numbers declining,” she said.
“We know that that will have a toll on the researchers, but our job is to really bear witness to see what happens.”
When the H5N1 strain eventually spreads to the Australian Antarctic Territory and Macquarie Island, it will raise the risk of it reaching Australia, too.
“We’re the last continent on Earth that doesn’t have this strain, so we want to keep it that way,” national animal disease preparedness coordinator Dr Brant Smith said.
Dr Smith said it was vital to remain vigilant.
“It’s really important we continue to do our surveillance, making sure that we are looking for signs of disease early and responding quickly if we did find an incursion of [highly pathogenic avian influenza] in Australia.”
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