UFC Abu Dhabi Fight Card Preview, Odds & Predictions: Vera Vs. Figueiredo

UFC Abu Dhabi Fight Card Preview, Odds & Predictions: Vera Vs. Figueiredo

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – AUGUST 19: Marlon Vera of Ecuador has his hands wrapped prior to his fight … [+] during the UFC 292 event at TD Garden on August 19, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

On Saturday, the UFC is in the United Arab Emirates for the UFC Abu Dhabi fight card. The event, also known as UFC on ABC 7, takes place at Etihad Arena. In the main event, Cory Sandhagen faces Umar Nurmagomedov in a pivotal bantamweight battle. Earlier on the main card, a former UFC champion and a recent title challenger face off in a pivotal bantamweight bout. In that contest, ex-flyweight titleholder Deiveson Figueiredo meets Marlon “Chito” Vera.

UFC Abu Dhabi begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on ABC, following prelims at 12:00 ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+.

Vera is the No. 4 fighter in the official UFC bantamweight rankings, while Figueiredo is ranked at No. 6 in the UFC’s 135-pound division.

Below, we take a deep dive into the Vera vs. Figueiredo fight.

Careers

Marlon “Chito” Vera

MIAMI, FLORIDA – MARCH 09: Marlon Vera of Ecuador prepares to face Sean O’Malley in the UFC … [+] bantamweight championship fight during the UFC 299 event at Kaseya Center on March 09, 2024 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Marlon “Chito” Vera (23-9-1) has been with the UFC for nearly 10 years. During that time, the Ecuador scrapper has had his ups and downs. Most recently, Vera experienced one of those downs when he came up short in a title fight against UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley at UFC 299 in March. The 31-year-old looks to avoid a two-fight losing skid at UFC Abu Dhabi. Vera has not lost two in a row since he dropped decisions to John Lineker and Douglas Silva de Andrade in 2017-18.

Vera began his UFC career in November 2014, losing his promotional debut to Marco Beltrán by decision. Vera went 4-3 in his next seven outings. The final two bouts during that run were his losses to Lineker and De Andrade, which followed a three-fight winning streak.

Following those back-to-back setbacks, Vera went on a five-fight winning streak, a run that culminated with a “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning TKO victory over Andre Ewell.

That stretch of wins ended in May 2020 when Song Yadong defeated Vera in a featherweight contest that won “Fight of the Night” honors.

Following his loss to Yadong, pulled off an upset win, beating the previously perfect Sean O’Malley via TKO. That win out Vera in the UFC bantamweight rankings at No. 15, and earned him a matchup against former UFC featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo. Aldo, who was coming off a loss to Petr Yan for the vacant 135-pound title, defeated Vera by decision. The loss to Aldo did not drop Vera from the rankings.

Vera went on the best run of his career in his next four fights. Between June 2021 and August 2022, Vera picked up victories over Davey Grant, Frankie Edgar, Rob Font, and Dominick Cruz. Each of those wins earned Vera a fight-night bonus. With that run, Vera moved to No. 3 in the rankings, setting him up to face the No. 5 ranked Cory Sandhagen in the main event of a March 2023 Fight Night card.

Sandhagen picked up a split decision win in that contest. The loss dropped Vera to No. 6 in the weight class, but an August 2023 win over Pedro Munhoz moved Vera back to No. 5 and set up a rematch with O’Malley, who had won the UFC bantamweight title at UFC 292, the same card where Vera defeated Munhoz. O’Malley dominated Vera in that bout, bloodying his opponent on his way to a one-sided decision win in the first defense of his title.

Vera has not stepped into the Octagon since his loss to the champion.

Deiveson Figueiredo

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – APRIL 13: Deiveson Figueiredo of Brazil prepares to fight in a bantamweight … [+] fight during the UFC 300 event at T-Mobile Arena on April 13, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Deiveson Figueiredo (23-3-1) was 11-0 when he joined the UFC. Figueiredo opened his career with the promotion with four straight wins, three of those coming by knockout. The biggest victory of the run, which came at flyweight was his August 2018 victory over John Moraga. At the time of the matchup, Moraga was ranked No. 6 in the 125-pound weight class while Figueiredo was at No. 14.

That second-round stoppage win rocketed Figueiredo to No. 4 in the rankings. However, the surging Brazilian fell short in his next outing, as No. 1 ranked Jussier Formiga beat him via unanimous decision.

Figueiredo held onto his No. 4 ranking following the loss. He then defeated Alexandre Pantoja and Tim Elliott to climb to No. 3 in the division, which set him up to face No. 1 ranked Joseph Benavidez for the vacant flyweight title. However, Figueiredo became ineligible to win the belt after he weighed in over the 125-pound title fight limit, tipping the scale at 127.5. Figueiredo won the fight by TKO, which set up a rematch between the two, again for the vacant belt.

Figueiredo made weight for the second Benavidez bout, and picked up the title with a first-round technical submission victory. In his next outing, Figueiredo defended the crown by beating Alex Perez via submission.

The champ’s title reign came close to ending in December 2020 when he and Brandon Moreno fought to a draw at UFC 256. The UFC scheduled an immediate rematch between the two, and Moreno won that scrap by submission, taking the title from Figueiredo.

In a trilogy fight, Figueiredo triumphed over Moreno by unanimous decision. A fourth fight between the two followed, with Moreno once again winning the belt, defeating Figueiredo by TKO at UFC 283.

The second setback to Moreno was Figueiredo’s last fight at 125. He moved to 135 in December 2023, beating Rob Font in his bantamweight debut. Figueiredo followed that win with an April submission victory over former titleholder Cody Garbrandt.

Figueiredo looks to keep his winning streak alive, and take one step closer to a 135-pound title fight in Abu Dhabi.

UFC Abu Dhabi Odds: Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

The opening odds for this matchup were a pick ‘em. Figueiredo was listed at -105, and Vera came in at -115. Since then, things have shifted, and Figueiredo is now the -163 betting favorite over Vera, who is listed at +114.

Significant Stats

Vera has a three-inch height advantage and two-inch reach advantage over his opponent in this matchup. Vera lands 4.31 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 49 percent. His striking defense is 50 percent, but he gets tagged with 5.48 significant strikes per minute. Vera lands 0.53 takedowns per 15 minutes, with an accuracy of 39 percent. His takedown defense is 70 percent.

The former flyweight champion lands 3.01 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy rate of 55 percent. Figueiredo gets hit 3.38 times per minute, and his striking defense is 50 percent. Figueiredo averages 1.65 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 42 percent. He has a takedown defense of 58 percent.

UFC Abu Dhabi Prediction and Pick: Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Unless something has changed in Vera’s camp, he will start this fight slowly, and that’s something he can’t do against someone like Figueiredo, who has the skills and tenacity to make things difficult for Vera. The betting pick is for Figueiredo to use his wrestling skills to grind out a decision win over Vera.

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