Is Tasmania in drought? This is the difference a bad year makes

It’s hard to miss the dry barren landscapes when travelling around Tasmania. 

The capital is no exception.

It’s been a hotter and drier summer than usual for Hobart, which has had about half the usual rainfall compared to the long-term average.

Last month, Hobart had only 4.2mm of rain, making it the third driest February in 143 years.

It’s a similar experience around Tasmania, which has had summer rainfall below average — following an already below-average rainfall in spring and a very dry summer in 2022-23.

And on remote King Island, some residents there say it is the driest they have ever seen it.

High-resolution imagery can provide a snapshot of what many Tasmanians are noticing about how dry it is this summer.

While this imagery is not available for all locations in Tasmania, the lack of rain this year is apparent in Hobart and its surroundings.

Summer 2023 v 2024

Richmond

Dam near Richmond

Kingston and the Southern Outlet

Tea Tree

Huonville

Ranelagh

Dam near Cambridge

Tranmere

Carlton Beach

Dunalley

Many parts of Tasmania feeling the lack of rain

Dr Tom Remenyi, resident climate scientist with data company Eratos, said it had been extremely dry in some parts of the state.

“In those places where it’s been very dry, it has been quite devastating,” he said.

Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Jonathon Pollock said some areas between Richmond and Orford had experienced their lowest rainfall on record.

“There is a band across Tasmania from the south-east to the north-west where rainfall was very much below average over summer,” he said.

“Some parts of the eastern north had less than 20 per cent of their typical February rainfall totals. Parts of the south and King Island experienced rainfall in the lowest 10 per cent for summer.”

King Island rain deficit ‘worst in living memory’

Beth Vellekoop lives on a farm in King Island’s north-west and has never seen it this dry.

She believes the island’s isolation makes dealing with a drought more difficult. 

“They’re saying it’s the worst in living memory,” Ms Vellekoop said. 

“Normally on King Island, we have a fairly regular rainfall, it does dry off in summer and everyone expects it to but this summer has been really bad.”

Farmers are having to ship livestock off the island to abattoirs, as there is no food available for them. 

“There’s no grass, it’s too expensive to freight anything in to actually feed your animals, if you can even get it,” Ms Vellekoop said.

“It’s quite worrying, it’s quite depressing for the farmers.” 

The state government has announced funding relief for King Island farmers. 

“While we no longer officially declare regions in drought anymore, it is clear King Island is in drought and immediate assistance is required,” Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff said.

“It’s a drought, and the farmers need help right now.”

Is Tasmania in drought?

That’s a good question and one hard to answer as droughts are no longer officially declared.

Following a National Drought Agreement signed in 2018, it is up to each state and territory to manage issues during a drought, but there will be no official drought declaration. 

Tasmania overall has had below-average rainfall since last spring, with some regions impacted more than others. 

Dr Remenyi said there had been a move away from declaring droughts for a long time. 

“Drought declarations are a very difficult thing to do,” Dr Remenyi said. 

“Where you’re experiencing a drying trend like we are in parts of Tasmania, and have been since the 70s, at what point do you then say, this is no longer a drought, it’s a different climate?”

When will it rain?

According to the BOM’s Jonathon Pollock, there is a high chance Tasmania will have a warmer-than-average autumn and there is a 50-50 chance it will be dry in some parts.

Scientists say that due to changes in the climate, the weather is getting harder to predict. 

“Our forecasting capacity is diminished at the moment, all the models are doing a pretty poor job at monthly and longer timescales and even at the 14-day timescale,” Dr Remenyi said. 

The enormous eruption of an underwater volcano off Tonga in 2022 is also continuing to have an impact.

That event pumped a record-breaking amount of water vapour into the stratosphere, affecting parts of Australia for up to eight years, and is also making forecasting more difficult.

“Particularly this year, which is a one-in-100-year event sitting on top of climate change, we have no understanding of how the climate system will respond in these conditions,” Dr Rumenyi said. 

He said the El Nino event underway in the Pacific does not affect Tasmania in summer and autumn. 

“El Nino and La Nina do not have really strong relationships with Tasmania and are not good predictors of what’s happening into the future,” he said.