What Newcastle need to qualify from the Champions League group stage

Eddie Howe, much like his controversial employers, has his sights set skyward.

“I want my players to be remembered forever,” Newcastle United’s ambitious manager declared at the start of the season, “to become club legends.” If Howe’s side can somehow find a way to qualify from their desperately competitive Champions League group, they will have taken one giant leap towards the lofty status their coach craves.

Newcastle may be in an unfavourable position in this year’s so-called ‘Group of Death‘, bottom of the standings with two games to go, but they have recovered from an even more treacherous deficit in the past.

Sir Bobby Robson’s vintage from the 2002/03 campaign had zero points and just as many goals after their opening three games of the group stage. Yet, a scarcely conceivable sequence of three wins against Juventus, Dynamo Kyiv and Feyenoord hauled Newcastle into the next phase – which, back then, was a second group stage anticlimactically.

Two decades on, here’s what Howe’s side have to do to ensure they can still hear those iconic strains of the Champions League anthem after Christmas.

Group F table

There are plenty of permutations and combinations left to play out over Newcastle’s final two matches but one thing is guaranteed: defeat away to PSG next time out on 28 November would end the Magpies’ Champions League campaign.

If the Parisians prevail at the end of the month, they would be on an unassailable nine points compared to Newcastle’s four. Even if Dortmund didn’t win another game in this group stage and Newcastle were to defeat Milan on the final matchday – thereby equalling BVB’s tally of seven points – the German club would be nestled above the Magpies by virtue of a superior head-to-head record.

The aggregate result of matches between all involved parties is the first tiebreaker for clubs that are level on points in the Champions League group stage – unlike the Premier League for example, which uses goal difference across the entire campaign. As Dortmund defeated Newcastle home and away, they have the upper hand over Howe’s side.

Newcastle can remove all doubt by winning their final two group games – transferring their thunderous home triumph over PSG to Paris before calling on the might of St James’ Park against Milan – which would confirm one of the top two spots which seal passage to the knockouts.

Should the Magpies earn a reputable draw against the French champions away from home later this month, Howe’s side would have to defeat Milan and rely upon favourable results elsewhere – namely, Dortmund losing both of their remaining games.

There is the devilishly enticing scenario where all four teams end the group stage on eight points, with the exact same record of W2 D2 L2. In that highly unlikely scenario, with head-to-head results effectively cancelling each other out, goal difference would be the next deciding factor. If that could still not separate the sides, UEFA would have to sift through its remaining criteria; total goals scored, away goals, wins, away wins, disciplinary points and finally, each team’s UEFA club coefficient.

Newcastle 2023/24 Champions League fixtures and results

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