YOKOHAMA, JAPAN – NOVEMBER 02: Pyrotechnics explode as Siya Kolisi of South Africa lifts the Webb … [+] Ellis Cup following his team’s victory against England in the Rugby World Cup 2019 Final. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
In his recent video dissecting Tonga, rugby youtuber, and man who can make a Squarespace advertisement funny, Squidge Rugby (real name Robbie Owen) said “it’s almost the most wonderful time of the year because it’s time for rugby.” He is, of course, referring to the fact that in a matter of days the Rugby World Cup kicks off in France. So I sat down with him to discuss his expectations for the tournament and to find out who he thinks will win it all.
Excitement Levels
When I asked Robbie how excited he was for the beginning of the tournament he described the lead up to it as a prolonged two-week Christmas Eve for rugby fans, the most anticipated moment since 2019. And in his eyes there is no better way to start the tournament than with a mouthwatering clash between France and New Zealand.
As he correctly pointed out, the last time France played New Zealand in a Rugby World Cup was back in 2015 when the All Blacks mauled a terrible French team on the way to their second consecutive World Cup win. But times have changed. Dan Carter and Richie McCaw are long retired and it is France and not the All Blacks that go into this World Cup as favorites.
The hosts are in a historic purple patch which Squidge believes has made France the epicenter of world rugby. Thanks to strong planning and smart investment from the French Rugby Union, France has won the last three u20 World Championships. Their domestic league, the Top 14, is now the most competitive in the world and boasts the highest attendances, with many of the best players and wages. Most importantly, there is a belief and buy-in from fans. Whereas past iterations of the French national team have been controversial or have lacked the clutch gene in the big moment, this team seems to have everything, including fan support.
The team is young and vibrant and boasts the best player in the world, Antoine Dupont. Moreover, as Squidge noted, the young team overperformed at the last World Cup, capturing the hearts of fans in the process. Now the players are peaking, just in time for a home Rugby World Cup.
Squidge says in 2019 it felt like Japan fell in love with rugby in real time, as they hosted the tournament. Japan pulled out all the stops for fans, creating huge fan zones where fans could mingle and revel together. Japan’s interest in rugby was helped by the hosts winning their pool, defeating Scotland and Ireland, before going out to eventual winners South Africa. This time he says it feels like rugby has taken over the culture in France. Not only is the national team on fire, the club teams have been dominant in European competition and fans love it – just look at the reception for European Cup winners La Rochelle last spring.
So it is fantastic that everything is on the line in the very first game. The hosts meet the All Blacks in what promises to be one of the best games of the tournament. The teams met in the final of the inaugural World Cup in 1987, with New Zealand coming out on top. They met again in the 2011 final, and the result was the same. In between, they met in the 1999 semi-final, where the French knocked out the tournament favorites. Squidge says he’s unsure who will win this test match, but there will be repercussions. A big win for either team will be a massive confidence booster, whereas a tight affair will show how evenly matched the two are. Regardless, the losing team will likely finish second in the group and have to face the number one side from Pool A, which boasts number one team in the world Ireland, defending champions South Africa and swashbuckling Scotland, ranked number five in the world.
LONDON, ENGLAND – MARCH 16: Finn Russell of Scotland scores his team’s fifth try during the Guinness … [+] Six Nations match between England and Scotland at Twickenham Stadium on March 16, 2019 in London, England. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)
Pool of Death (Pool B)
As for the Pool of Death, Squidge calls it “hugely exciting” and says seeing these games in the pool stage gives this tournament a different feel to it. Most fans are used to seeing titanic clashes in the knockout rounds, but the fact that teams numbers one, two and five in the world are all in the same pool really raises the level of jeopardy in the initial phase of the tournament.
Robbie said it’s really hard to call and went through all the permutations he sees as possible out loud. He says he can see a world in which Scotland – who he claims have been flying under the radar despite being ranked 5 in the world – beat the other two. He says he could equally see Ireland topping the group, or a world in which the Springboks don’t click and go out in the pool stage. To be fair to him, he posed this last thought before the Springboks demolished the All Blacks in their pre-tournament warm up test.
Although Squidge admits there is a possibility that all three beat each other and it comes down to points, when push came to shove he admitted his gut feeling was that South Africa would win the group and Ireland would come second. He also noted that despite the influx of new talent, he does not see Tonga causing an upset in this group, noting that the increased firepower may not have come in the right places – flair players instead of dominant forwards.
Anyone’s to Win
Despite the fact Robbie doesn’t see Tonga causing an upset, he does concur with the common opinion that this is the most open Rugby World Cup to date. He says it builds on the tournament from four years ago and has become really hard to predict. According to Squidge – who locks himself in his office and analyzes rugby matches for hours on end – between 2015 and 2019 the gap between the best and worst Tier 2 nations (Georgia, Romania, Tonga, Samoa, Fiji, etc) “shrunk enormously.” He notes that blowouts became a thing of the past and points to Uruguay’s win over the kings of flair Fiji as evidence of progress being made.
In the four years since, Squidge notes that the gap between the best Tier 2 nations and the worst Tier 1 nations has also shrunk. Just in the past 18 months Georgia beat Italy and Wales, and the Uruguayan national team coach has openly stated they are targeting a win against Italy. Samoa and Fiji are showing signs of real structural progress to go with their incredible natural talent and teams like Chile and Portugal will add an unknown quantity to the tournament having beaten out traditional tournament goers Canada and the U.S.
The increased competition and the way the draw was made has left the tournament incredibly open. According to Squidge, both Georgia and Fiji can win two big games and end up as a surprise package in a World Cup quarterfinal. He also notes that no one quite knows Scotland’s ceiling, Wales are starting to build something in Warren Gatland’s second reign and with any luck they, Australia or Argentina could make the final.
The open nature of the tournament is exciting and bound to provide several upsets along the way. But when asked if it’s conceivable that a team that no one thinks is the best wins the whole thing, Robbie says no. He notes that every team who has ever won has ridden its luck at times and that “usually, when a team wins you think they probably deserved it.”
So, who does Squidge think will win the Rugby World Cup? He says that no one really has any idea. For him, only Australia under Eddie Jones and Wales under Warren Gatland have a real shot at making the final from the weaker side of the pool. He says either team could win it all, the Wallabies would need a tactical masterclass from Jones, whereas he thinks Wales could win “playing the most boring rugby ever seen,” although he admits that he may be saying that mostly because he is Welsh.
When pressed for an answer Squidge said he sees New Zealand with the best chance of winning (again, before they were mauled by South Africa). He says it feels like the All Blacks would be the side “most comfortable getting to the final,” while exerting the least emotion. He says that France and Ireland are the other title contenders, but he says the emotional drain could take a toll on France and Ireland has a very tough run to the final.
Tactical Innovations
Since Squidge pours over the tapes of every test match, looking for the newest trends in rugby, it was only natural to ask him what fans should be looking out for during the tournament. He says there are a handful of interesting tactical innovations. The first is the fluid, unstructured play that Eddie Jones was developing when he was England coach.
While performances cost Jones his job with England, Squidge says fans should see the innovative approach being implemented with Jones’s new side, Australia. The attacking set-up under Jones is constantly changing and he is moving away from the structured 1-3-3-1 or 1-3-2-2 pod systems that are commonly seen amongst top tier nations. However, because Jones will be implementing this with a highly inexperienced side, it is unclear if it will be a masterstroke or a disastrous mess.
Squidge also notes that attacking back against the grain to the other side of the ruck, kicking on the front foot and the dual play-maker idea are all (back) in vogue. Teams are now attacking several phases to one side of the ruck, only to then cut back against the grain and overload the weak side, catching out defenses. They are also kicking when they have the momentum and territory to force the opposing side to kick it back to them, setting up counter attacks or opening up space. He says France, Ireland and New Zealand are doing this best.
Most importantly, he notes there are likely a lot of tactical innovations fans will not see until the knockout stage. Coaches in rugby hide their cards close to their chest, only revealing them at the opportune moment. So keep an eye out for some brand new attacking patterns from the quarter-finals onwards.
Team, Back and Forward to Watch
Because this tournament is unprecedentedly open, I asked Robbie to provide me with one team, one back and one forward fans should keep an eye out for. Naturally, because of his excitement for the tournament and his vast array of knowledge, he gave me several.
Team
He says the obvious answer here is simple: France. They are the host nation, the fan favorite, they have been on an incredible run of late – including a 2022 6 Nations Grand Slam victory – and they have all the talent to finally win.
The less obvious answer is Portugal. Anyone who has watched Squidge’s videos knows how much he loves an underdog and unearthing new gems for the wider rugby public. He says this Portugal side is enormous fun to watch. They are young and virtually all of them were inspired to play rugby after watching their nation’s 2007 side participate in its first Rugby World Cup ever. Squidge is effusive about Portugal, noting that they play “beautiful, high pass, high fun rugby,” and that “they will score some spectacular tries.” He is particularly excited about the Portugal vs Fiji match, which promises to be open and full of flair.
Back
Again the answer here is obvious. The back everyone should and will watch is Antoine Dupont. However, two other backs to watch are fly halves Rodrigo Fernandez and Mannie Libbok. Fernandez is Chile’s number 10. He can play 10 or 15 and brings a real flair to the team. He also scored the best try of the year last year and helped guide Chile to its first-ever World Cup.
Mannie Libbok is unexpectedly South Africa’s starting number 10 since injury has left Handré Pollard at home. According to Squidge, Libbok is “amazingly talented, but prone to taking skills and switching off.” He thinks watching him play 10 for the defending champions will be a fantastic scientific experiment.
Forward
Robbie couldn’t bring himself to name just one forward to watch and instead gave me several based on play and personality. The first he mentioned was Romanian captain, Mihai Macovei. Unfortunately, since our conversation the 6 foot 5 Romanian number 8 has been ruled out of the tournament with a left calf tear.
Based on both on-field play and his jovial personality, Robbie believes South African monster, Ox Nché is a player to watch. The 5 foot 8, 250 pound prop is a beast in the scrum, but has flown under the radar in South Africa’s highly touted forward pack. He is also a loveable character who has grown a solid following on social media thanks to his goofy videos and his catchphrase, “salads don’t win scrums.”
Squidge also wants fans to keep an eye out for Wales’s new co-captains Jack Morgan and Dewi Lake. Morgan, a backrower, and Lake, a hooker, have played together at the Ospreys and came through the younger age groups together for Wales. They will be at the heart of anything positive Wales can do in this tournament.
Wales
Since rugby’s most famous YouTube analyst hails from Wales, I had to ask him about his home nation.
Squidge says it is “a hell of a time to be a Welsh rugby fan.” Despite the up and down (mostly down) nature of the team over the past two years, Squidge is quietly confident about their chances in this World Cup. The fact that they were terrible in the last 6 Nations, had to bring back their old coach and have had major scandals permeating throughout the Wales Rugby Union, has left no one talking about them.
Since the news of the scandals broke, Squidge says even the normally fervent Welsh crowd has reacted differently to the team. However, he says he sees something building with a young group of players led by Warren Gatland and new captains Lake and Morgan. He says it feels a lot like 2011 – something Gatland himself intimated on the Rugby Union Weekly podcast – when Wales made the semi-final, only to be denied a place in the final because of a red card.
The reboot is sorely needed. Robbie notes that Wales, a traditional rugby stronghold, has begun to fall in love with soccer. As the fortunes of the Welsh soccer team have improved, the fortunes of the Rugby Union team have dipped. That, in tandem with the scandals, has driven fans away from the game. Squidge says, while the grassroots game is still popular in Wales, the national side performing well in this tournament could help fans fall back in love with the game.
CARDIFF, WALES – MARCH 19: Welsh Fans celebrate during the RBS Six Nations International between … [+] Wales and Ireland at The Millennium Stadium. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
State of the Game
Regardless of who wins the tournament, I wanted to know what he makes of the state of the game. Is rugby in a good place?
Squidge says he’s simply not sure, he sees positives and negatives. He notes the great strides taken by nations like Uruguay and Chile in 2019-20 and the investment in Brazil and Paraguay since then. He also says that the women’s game is arguably leading the charge for rugby, with wonderful displays of talent and showing that it has learned the tough lessons from the men’s game.
Unfortunately, the men’s game is still struggling to learn its own lessons. He notes that rugby in England arguably thinks it is bigger than it is. While it does have funding and regional fan bases, it still can’t compete with soccer, and many people walking down the street would not recognize even the most famous of English rugby players. He says the mentality there has led to a lot of “taking things for granted,” and notes that the continued financial issues and dissolving of teams is very concerning.
Most of all he is concerned about the new World League which will be introduced in 2025. He notes that it looks like it is solving an issue that isn’t there. While more Tier 1 nations will play each other more often, he fears Tier 2 nations will be locked out, and left to search for competitive matches. This could stunt the growth of emerging rugby nations like Chile and Brazil.
For now, the future will have to wait as over the next two months eyes will be firmly fixed on France to see who gets to lift the Webb Ellis Cup. And have no doubt, Squidge’s fun tactical videos will be a constant throughout, providing fans with extra insight into why certain teams are winning.
