Trey Lance’s future with the San Francisco 49ers is complicated. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty … [+] Images)
Third-year San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance is on the proverbial hot seat heading into Saturday night’s preseason game against the Denver Broncos.
Lance started the exhibition opener in Las Vegas, putting up an up-and-down performance as the 49ers fell to the Raiders by the score of 34-7.
The 23-year-old former No. 3 pick will now play backup duty as San Francisco hosts Denver at Levi’s Stadium. Could his future with the 49ers be on the line due a combination of inexperience, inconsistency and San Francisco’s win-now window? It’s a real question that must be asked.
Fair or not, Lance has continued to receive criticism for his lack of progression and inability to stay on the field. The former North Dakota State star opened last season as San Francisco’s starter before suffering an ankle injury in the first quarter of the 49ers’ Week 2 win over the Seattle Seahawks. He would go on to miss the remainder of the campaign.
Things were vastly different heading into training camp earlier this summer. Lance is battling for the primary backup job with Sam Darnold behind second-year quarterback Brock Purdy, who is now the unquestioned starter.
As Lance was rehabbing from his ankle injury last season, Purdy won all five of his regular-season starts before leading San Francisco to the NFC Championship Game as a rookie. In terms of coverage since, things have been heavily slanted toward Purdy as the 49ers’ savior under center while Lance continues to receive criticism via written articles and talking heads.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan touched on that in his Q&A with the media heading into Saturday’s preseason game.
“It just goes with the territory. It goes with it for quarterbacks. It goes with it for anybody who’s a high draft pick but especially a quarterback,” Shanahan told reporters. “Trey is extremely smart and very socially aware. He knows how the world works. So he does his best, which I think he does a damn good job of, of trying to block that out and focus on getting better, and I think that’s what he’s done so far.”
The most-recent criticism came from former NFL executive Michael Lombardi.
“When his mom lifted him up from the crib, he didn’t have that QB instinct,” Lombardi said of Lance in a recent podcast.
While Lombardi has since received criticism himself, it’s been an all-too common theme. That is to say, Lance facing the wrath of being a high pick at quarterback without being given much of an opportunity to prove himself. Unfortunately, this is the nature of the beast right now in San Francisco.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers On Two Different Timelines
Brock Purdy has proven he’s more ready to play for a championship contender. (Photo by Thearon W. … [+] Henderson/Getty Images)
Last week’s loss to the Raiders was a primary example of Lance being extremely raw at this young stage in his career. He completed 10-of-15 passes for 112 yards with a touchdown and zero interceptions.
Anyone who followed the game simply by looking at Lance’s stats had to figure he played well. That wasn’t the case. The quarterback’s only touchdown of the game came after Raiders defensive back Duke Shelley dropped an easy interception. The ball made its way to backup tight end Ross Dwelley for a fluky touchdown. Later in the first half, Lance had another would-be interception dropped by a Raiders defender.
This analysis is not to knock Lance as much as it is to point out that he needs a lot of playing time in order to be a competent NFL quarterback. A vast majority of young signal callers with 102 regular season passes under their belts would be in a similar situation.
Rather, it’s all about competing timelines. San Francisco’s championship window is wide open. It can’t afford to suffer through the growing pains of a young quarterback as raw as Lance is.
In extensive playing time as a rookie last season, Purdy did not show this same greenness. In addition to the 49ers winning all five of his regular season starts, the Iowa State product led them to 33.6 points per game. Purdy completed 67 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. During his five-start sample size, the former seventh-round pick put up an NFL-best 107.3 QB rating.
Sure Purdy will have his own struggles at times as a sophomore. But they are not going to be as widespread as what we’d see from Lance if he were thrown into action.
Enter into the equation free agent signing Sam Darnold, who seems to be a bit ahead of Lance for the 49ers’ primary backup job. Darnold outplayed his younger counterpart in limited action last week. Depending on how he looks against Denver Saturday night, Darnold could very well put an end to the competition to be Purdy’s top backup. The other factor here is Darnold’s perceived floor compared to that of Lance’s given his starting experience.
These are some of the primary reasons Lance is under a microscope heading into the game. A repeat of last week’s performance in Las Vegas just won’t cut it.
Trey Lance’s Future Clearly Up In The Air
There are a ton of other factors to look at when determining whether we’re entering the final leg of Lance’s time with the 49ers. It’s not simply all about on-field play.
Shanahan and general manager John Lynch exhausted a ton of draft capital by trading up to the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, eventually taking Lance with that selection. This included two future first-round picks and change.
There is something to be said about ego. Shanahan and Lynch might not want to admit a mistake of this ilk after just two seasons. That previous commitment to Lance might loom large moving forward.
Look at it this way. If the choice is between Lance and veteran journeyman Brandon Allen for the No. 3 job, the former will have the upper hand simply because of what I mentioned above.
Finances also play a role in the 49ers’ decision-making process. Releasing Lance would result in a $10 million dead cap hit for the 2023 season. That’s just not happening.
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The other option is a trade, which is something the 49ers have had to look into internally. Lance’s dead cap hit would be a mere $5.5 million in that scenario. Even then, acquiring what would likely be a mid-to-late round pick for the quarterback wouldn’t equate to Shanahan and Lynch saving face.
At this point, the likeliest scenario is that Lance opens the season as San Francisco’s third quarterback behind Purdy and Darnold. He’ll be active on game day due to new NFL rules as well as San Francisco’s injury-plagued ways in last season’s NFC Championship Game.
The larger question here is whether Lance will even get on the field enough to clear this situation up before the 2024 NFL offseason gets going. Right now, that seems highly unlikely. It’s now up to the young quarterback to do what he can with the opportunities he’s given over the next two games. He can’t do anything more than that.
