Topline
Wildfires are predicted to damage upwards of $22 billion worth of property by 2049 –especially in the western United States—should climate action and policy not be implemented, a study published in Environmental Research Letters found.
A new study found properties’ exposure to wildfires could increase in the coming decades due to … [+] climate change. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)
Key Facts
The study focused on climate-fueled “forest disturbances” that include wildfires and tree deaths by climate-related causes, including heat, drought and insects, and analyzed how much of an economic impact those disturbances could have on property values, according to researchers at the University of Utah’s Wilkes Center for Climate Science and Policy.
The scientists found that $11 billion worth of properties are predicted to be exposed to wildfires between 2020-2049, up from $4 billion worth of properties which were exposed to wildfires in 2000-2018, which they concluded by analyzing fire data from 1984-2018 from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) tool from the United States Geological Survey.
Projections from the scientists show properties’ wildfire exposure could double from $11 billion to $22 billion by 2070 in what they called low-to-moderate emissions scenarios and to $45 billion by 2099 in high emission scenarios.
Meanwhile, tree mortality from climate, drought, heat and insects—such as the mountain pine beetle outbreak in Colorado—could impact up to 29 million households in the next 30 years compared to just 1 million households previously, scientists suggested based on US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from 2000-2018.
Key Background
Climate change and global warming can fuel severe heat and drought, which can then fuel wildfires. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change foresees “a lengthening wildfire season and increases in the area burned” and a higher frequency of droughts among other impacts of climbing temperatures. Between 1984 to 2018, there were 14,713 wildfires in the U.S., according to MTBS. MTBS also recorded 1,271 wildfires from 2019 to 2021. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) found that wildfires cost the U.S. $68.4 billion between 2018 and 2022. Funding for wildfire mitigation has increased over the last few years, according to research from Pew, as they found the Department of the Interior and the Forest Service spent $590.7 million annually between fiscal year 2011 and fiscal year 2020 on wildfire mitigation among other federal, state, and local government plans to address wildfires.
News Peg
Some experts say drought and flammable shrubs have worsened the wildfires that have ravaged Maui over the last week. The Hawaiian island is experiencing what has been deemed the deadliest U.S. fire in at least a century with 111 people confirmed dead and $5.52 billion in exposed capital, according to the Pacific Disaster Center and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Crucial Quote
“We’re already facing these climate risks to properties around the U.S, and these risks are pretty substantial,” William Anderegg, the leading researcher of this study and the director of the Wilkes Center for Climate Science and Policy at the University of Utah, told Forbes. “They’re likely to go up, and we need to start preparing for that now and being proactive and really trying to use the best available science to plan, adapt and try to minimize the risk to communities and to property in the coming decades.”
Contra
The authors of the study did not look into other ways climate change leads to wildfires, such as the effect of increased carbon dioxide on plant life, which can lead to more dried-out vegetation that can catch fire — a limitation of the study they acknowledged. California has had 4,337 wildfires that have killed three and damaged 20 structures this year, compared to 7,477 wildfires that killed nine civilians and impacted 876 structures last year, according to the state’s Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows that only 25.44% of California is dry in August 2023, compared to 100% last year. U.S. spending on wildfires has been consistently decreasing over the past few years after peaking between 2010-2022, per NCEI data.
Further Readings
Maui Officials Say Warning Sirens Would Not Have Saved Lives As Fire Death Toll Climbs To 111 (Forbes)
Maui Wildfire Becomes Deadliest U.S. Blaze In Over A Century—Surpassing These Other Fires (Forbes)
