The 2026-27 MLB free agency class is faced with the uncertainty of an early December lockout, which could truncate the upcoming season and dramatically change the league’s financial framework. It’s also not the flashiest class. Beyond two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, who could land a historic deal in the coming weeks, star power is at a premium.
That said, there are always a handful of undervalued and under-discussed free agents who produce outsized results for their next team — often at a discount. Let’s focus on ex-New York Yankees centerfielder Trent Grisham, who ought to appeal to several teams. He could be especially helpful to a handful of National League contenders.
Trent Grisham is better than his Yankees reputation suggests
Forgive me, for I watched Moneyball last night. But I’m about to hit you with a few interesting numbers.
Trent Grisham’s expected value in free agency, per Spotrac, is $13.71 million. That places him fifth among free agent outfielders, well behind fourth-ranked Taylor Ward — the same guy who hit .125 after the trade deadline and finished with a .670 OPS.
Grisham’s 2026 campaign was a slight disappointment. He cranked 18 homers, with a .703 OPS and 98 wRC+. He is only a year removed from hitting 34 homers with an .811 OPS while playing competent center field defense. He’s not a great defender, but he was at least not catastrophically bad in 2025 (-2 outs above average). His metrics declined in 2026 (-6 outs above average), but the 30-year-old is a past Gold Glove winner and there are workarounds.
Let’s focus on the offensive decline for now, though. Grisham’s on-base percentage declined from .348 to .308 last season. He went from a .235 average with a 14.1 percent walk rate to a .211 average with a 12.6 percent walk rate.
On the surface, Grisham’s contact rate and power simply collapsed. Dig a little deeper, however, and there’s reason for believe Grisham can bounce back in 2027. For one, his hard-hit percentage dropped from 46.4 in 2025 to 45.3 in 2026; it was a negligible decline at most. He actually generated optimal launch angles more frequently (from 34.6 percent to 35.7 percent). His average exit velocity dipped from 91.1 to 90.6 MPH, which again is not much of a decline.
Most notably, Grisham remained in the 67th percentile or better in strikeout rate (18.4 percent), whiff rate (18.2 percent) and walk rate (12.6 percent). So he hits the ball hard, he does not strike out much, and he stays disciplined, able to work deep into counts and get on base.
Yes, he was not on-base as often last season, but the expected metrics point to bad luck. His expected average (.245) far outstripped is actual average (.211), and was more in line with his 2025 production (when Grisham still slightly underperformed the metrics).
Grisham still packs a punch with his swing and he finds other ways to put together quality at-bats. The defense is a problem, but at 30 years old, it’s not crazy to think Grisham’s impact could improve with a move to a corner outfield spot, even if it’s a less premium position on paper. Grisham certainly swings the bat well enough to provide value in the corner, probably left field.
There’s a fringe All-Star version of Grisham, which was on full display only a year ago, that is still well within reach. Smart teams should take notice, especially if he’s in the market for a one-year, prove-it deal — or better yet, a cheaper multi-year contract that can age with grace.
Trent Grisham can help these NL contenders
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies would probably prefer a right-handed slugger; Seiya Suzuki and Randy Arozarena stand out near the top of the free agent pool. That said, even with suspect numbers against left-handed pitching, Grisham’s power and discipline would fill a critical hole on the Phillies depth chart. Philadelphia has struggled for a while to find a sustainable solution in the outfield. Grisham is a budget-friendly option with the potential for a huge payoff.
San Diego Padres
We know the Padres are already sniffing around potential corner outfielders, having been linked to Japanese star Teruaki Sato. Grisham is a smart alternative, especially since he’d move to left field, flanked by two elite all-around outfielders in Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr., who can aid both run production and prevention.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers could look to free agency to improve their outfield situation, especially if top prospects Eduardo Quintero and Mike Sirota need more seasoning in the minors. Teoscar Hernandez lost a step last season. At worst, Grisham makes for a compelling platoon partner; at best, he’s a potential short-term replacement.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are more desperate than ever to catch up with the frontrunning Brewers. Both Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ are free agents, which opens up holes at either corner outfield spot. Grisham can help keep Chicago’s lineup afloat, while the Cubs’ elite defense provides some cushion for Grisham as he potentially moves to left field.
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati was a Wild Card team in 2025, but the offense crumbled in 2026 despite outsized production from Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart. The Reds tried for short-term fixes like Eugenio Suarez, but there’s a much higher baseline with Grisham, who could immediately slot near the top of Cincy’s lineup.
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