The offseason is a perfect time for New York Mets fans like myself to be optimistic, and that’s exactly what I’m going to be doing here when I say the stars are aligning for the Mets to sign Tarik Skubal in free agency. I know, this seems crazy. Why would Skubal want to join a Mets team that just won 74 games in 2026 and has failed to make the playoffs in each of Juan Soto’s two years in Flushing?
Well, here’s a look at why the Mets make more sense for Skubal than you might think, and what might stand in their way of making this dream of arguably the best pitcher in the sport playing out the rest of his prime in Queens a reality.
The Dodgers’ lack of aggression might play into the Mets’ hands
When the Los Angeles Dodgers traded for Tarik Skubal, MLB fans not only assumed they’d automatically win a World Series title, but they also assumed that the Dodgers would easily extend Skubal, given their recent history of spending on star-level talent. It’s absolutely possible that the Dodgers do choose to re-sign Skubal, but look at what ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez had to say about that.
“Skubal’s agent, Scott Boras, will probably want to get something done with his client before the lockout, but it would be really difficult for the Dodgers to justify signing Skubal to a massive deal before knowing what MLB’s economic model will look like,” Gonzalez wrote. “If there is a cap-and-floor system in the next collective bargaining agreement, there will be some sort of phase-in period. But it will undoubtedly impact the Dodgers in the near future. It would be a major risk to sign Skubal before knowing what they’re signing up for.”
To sum up, Gonzalez is predicting that Skubal’s agent, Scott Boras, will likely want to get a deal done with his top client before the expected lockout at the beginning of December, but the Dodgers would want to wait until after the lockout so they know what the economic model of the sport will look like. This makes a ton of sense, given the massive amount of money they’ve already committed to 2027 and beyond. It’s worth noting that this is just Gonzalez’s belief, and not a sourced report.
If the Dodgers won’t aggressively pursue Skubal before December 1, why can’t the Mets be the team to give him an offer he can’t refuse? It’s not like the Mets haven’t been in this position before.
The Mets have beaten the competition to the punch pre-lockout before
Just like a lockout is looming this offseason, one loomed back in the 2021 offseason, when Max Scherzer was a free agent. Scherzer, who was represented by Scott Boras, made it clear that he wanted to sign before the league locked the players out, and he did just that, coming to terms on a three-year, $130 milllion deal with, guess who, the New York Mets.
Now, say what you want about how the deal aged (Scherzer pitched brilliantly in 2022 but struggled in that year’s postseason and was traded at the 2023 trade deadline), but the Mets beat the Dodgers and a couple of other teams to the punch to sign the future Hall of Famer on a deal that paid him well over $40 million annually.
Can’t that history repeat itself? The Mets won the Scherzer sweepstakes not because they were some powerhouse, but because the Dodgers didn’t want to go above and beyond to sign him as the Mets did. Reports suggest Skubal would like to sign pre-lockout and the Dodgers don’t want to go above and beyond. Why can’t the Mets do what they’ve already done and give their fan base something to get excited about before the lockout?
If the Dodgers and Mets won’t pay Tarik Skubal, what team will?
Let’s just assume that both the Dodgers and the Mets decide that paying Skubal is not in their best interest. Is there another team out there willing to spend the $300-to-$400 million on Skubal that he’ll likely be asking for?
The New York Yankees are often willing spenders, but with a ton of money invested in starting pitchers like Gerrit Cole, Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, would they pay Skubal before addressing their offense? The Philadelphia Phillies should be eager to spend after another early elimination, but again, is paying on pitching in their best interest? The Chicago Cubs could certainly use the pitching, but they’ve never even handed out a $200 million contract. Would they give $300+ million to Skubal? The Toronto Blue Jays have the money and the need for pitching help, but they also just paid Dylan Cease handsomely last winter and finished last in runs scored this past season. A return to the Detroit Tigers would be awesome, but that feels unrealistic.
There’re other teams like the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Angels who might show interest, but again, there isn’t really a perfect fit. If the Mets and Dodgers won’t meet an outlandish asking price, which team will?
The Mets have a clear need for a high-end starting pitcher
The Mets are building a strong rotation, with youngsters like Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and Zac Thornton in the fold, but the team lacks a true ace. They hoped Freddy Peralta would fill that void when they acquired him from the Brewers in the 2025 offseason, but that experiment flopped spectacularly.
It’s hard to see Skubal flopping, though, at least in 2027. He remains one of, if not the best pitcher in the sport, and even after an early-season injury scare, Skubal ended his season with a 2.72 ERA in 26 starts. He’s as dynamic as they come, and would instantly make the Mets true postseason contenders.
If they don’t sign Skubal, who else could they realistically get? The next-best options, such as Michael King, Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes, aren’t exactly aces. They could potentially swing a trade, but doing so is easier said than done. It feels like Skubal or bust when it comes to getting a bona fide ace.
Would David Stearns be willing to abandon his starting pitching philosophy to sign Tarik Skubal?
We know that the Mets have the need, the money and the location necessary to lure Skubal to the team, but would the individual responsible for making such a move, David Stearns, be willing to do so? Stearns has famously been averse to handing massive deals to starting pitchers, passing on guys like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Dylan Cease, to name a few, and instead relying on shorter-term gambles.
Most of these have not paid off, which is partially why the Mets have missed the playoffs in back-to-back years, but will there be a mindset shift? Will Stearns suddenly go from a guy unwilling to offer more than three years to a pitcher over the age of 30 to willing to meet Skubal’s demands?
That’s an answer we’re soon going to learn the answer to, and it could be the difference in Skubal joining the Mets or signing elsewhere. If Stearns is all in, the stars feel like they’re aligning for something special to happen.
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