The biggest key to winning your fantasy football league? It’s not picking up the right sleepers or killing it on the waiver wire. No, what’s most important is not screwing up your first few picks.
Sometimes, that’s unavoidable. Fluke injuries happen and when they do, all you can do is quietly say the F-word a bunch of times and move on. But sometimes, there are obvious signs that a guy going in the first few rounds could mess up your whole season ahead of time. These guys are being drafted in the top 36 at the moment (i.e., the first three rounds in 12-team leagues) and come with some major warning signs. I’m not saying not to draft them if they fall below their current ADP, but I’d be a little wary of drafting them at or above their ADP.
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
- Average ADP: 4.5
- Position Rank (by ADP): RB3
No, this is not because of the electrical substation theory, something that I currently still tell myself I don’t believe in. It’s more just about where we’re at in McCaffrey’s career and some of the warning signs at the moment that 2026 could look closer to 2024 than 2025.
That was the season when everything about McCaffrey felt weird in the lead-up. McCaffrey dealt with calf and Achilles issues that caused him to miss the preseason. He didn’t play Week 1 but there was optimism he’d be back soon…and then he suffered a setback and went on the IR. He didn’t debut until Week 10, then ended up getting injured again soon after.
And, well…McCaffrey has dealt with mysterious injury concerns through camp this year and has yet to play in the preseason. That alone wouldn’t be an issue, except he’s also been missing practice. I’d be terrified to take McCaffrey in the first round this season, considering his injury history, this current injury concern and the fact that he just turned 30.
RB Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
- Average ADP: 10
- Position Rank (by ADP): RB7
Ashton Jeanty was good as a rookie, but he didn’t quite take the NFL by storm in the way he was expected by many to do after an impressive career at Boise State. Despite having the seventh-most carries in the league, Jeanty was only 18th in rushing yards. Among all players in the top 20 in total rushing yards, his 3.7 yards per carry was the lowest.
While it’s fair to expect improvement, Jeanty is going off the board 10th overall on average, ahead of sure-fire star wide receivers like Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson, as well as running backs like Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley.
That just feels a bit too high. Jeanty’s 2025 tape was really uneven and while the upside is there for him to break out this year, I’m not sure I’m willing to bet my first-round pick on it. If you do, you’re forced to make safer picks later in the draft to balance it out, and this might just be me, but I like taking my risks slightly later than Round 1. (With that said, if I pick somewhere like 15th or 16th overall and Jeanty falls there, I might hammer the pick there.)
WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
- Average ADP: 20.5
- Position Rank (by ADP): WR7
Look: I think what Drake London has done so far in Atlanta has been impressive. In four seasons, he’s never finished below 866 receiving yards, and over the past two seasons he’s combined for 16 touchdown receptions. With that said, I really worry the Falcons offense is going to be in a “too many cooks” situation in 2026, considering the team is expected to get subpar play at quarterback from either Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr.
One thing that worries me is that Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts started to emerge late in the season as the player he was always expected to be. London missed some time in November and December, and his production was uneven once he returned, as he averaged 36.3 receiving yards per game over his final three games.
Will London play well in 2026? Probably, but he’s being drafted as the fantasy WR7 right now, which seems high when you consider team context. Like…I’d definitely rather have a handful of receivers who are going after him, like George Pickens, A.J. Brown and maybe even Nico Collins and Chris Olave.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets
- Average ADP: 29.5
- Position Rank (by ADP): RB17
It’s not easy to be a running back on a bad football team. You end up not getting the touches you need because your team is playing from behind so much, which leads to poor overall performances.
With New York Jets running back Breece Hall, you also have to factor in consistency concerns. Last season, Hall had eight games where he averaged 3.5 yards per carry or less, and he also never really saw super heavy usage, with 20 or more carries just twice. The talent is there, but there are just a few things working against him this season.
We also can’t discount the possibility that the Jets get Braelon Allen more touches this season. He’s got breakaway speed, and while he only appeared in four games last season before suffering an MCL sprain. He’s back healthy for 2025, and with him entering his third NFL season, the Jets will probably want to see what they can do with him, especially since he’s three years younger than Hall, though the Jets are obviously invested in Hall as well after extending him this offseason.
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
- Average ADP: 34
- Position Rank (by ADP): QB2
Josh Allen is the only quarterback being drafted in the top 20 at the moment, which is fair, as Allen has given us plenty of reason to trust him as the QB1. The second quarterback going off the board is Lamar Jackson, who is being drafted on average as the No. 25 pick on Sleeper.
I’m not saying that Jackson is going to be bad. I just think drafting him at his ADP runs the risk of really hampering the way you build your fantasy team, especially when you factor in that in 2025, Jackson posted his worst completion percentage since 2022 while averaging under 200 passing yards per game for the first time since 2020. Add in a career-low 26.8 rushing yards per game and, uhh…Jackson might be starting to lose a bit of his luster.
That’s now what you want from a quarterback you take in the first three rounds, especially when can wait about two rounds to draft perfectly strong fantasy QB1s like Drake Maye, Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels. Yeah, the upside for Jackson is higher, but you have to think about the trade offs of going quarterback in Round 3 vs. going quarterback in Round 5. It’s the difference between having Javonte Williams as your RB2 and having Jaylen Warren as your RB2. I want the former every time, and taking Jackson early makes it more likely you end up forced to draft in the running-back dead zone.
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