Analysts say the U.S.-Iran war is at a critical point with the potential for further escalation, as the pattern of back-and-forth strikes resumes and hopes for a quick end to the five-month conflict fade.
“This is not a war that can fall into the category of the managed escalations,” stressed Arman Mahmoudian, a research fellow at the Global and National Security Institute of the University of South Florida.
This comes after the United States and Iran each fired barrages of missiles Thursday,.
Following a few days of respite, fears of a wider war have grown, with renewed fighting threatening to engulf even more countries.
Jordan said Thursday it intercepted Iranian missiles for the second consecutive day, while Kuwait said a strike in the northern part of the country killed one person.
Also this week, drones caused fires on ships at an Egyptian port, and Saudi Arabia said it came under fire from Iran-backed militias in Iraq.
Mahmoudian said Iran sent signals that the war is going to be expanded.
“It’s going to enlarge day by day. And the recent events that took place, including the Ukrainians’ attack on the Iranian or Russian cargoes in Caspian sea, is also signalling that there are new parties that may get involved into this war without any invitation,” he explained.
The war — which in its early days President Donald Trump said would last four to five weeks, although he warned it could take longer — has caused the price of fuel to spike and roiled the global economy.
As months have passed, concerns have deepened about using up the stockpile of weapons the U.S. needs to defend its bases and allies.
The recent pause in fighting, which began over the weekend and spurred hopes among mediators of diplomatic progress, ended with increasing missile and drone attacks across many countries in the Middle East.
Ali Vaez, the deputy program director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, said Iran would expand the war to new territories.
“This is why we have seen Iran attacking. Jordan, a country that it did not attack in the past, we have also seen Iranian allies in the region putting more pressure on energy routes like Bab al-Mandab or even with a recent attack in Egypt on the Suez Canal,” he added.
Also on Wednesday, British maritime security firm Ambrey said drone strikes ignited fires on two natural gas vessels at the Egyptian port of Damietta.
It was not immediately clear who was responsible for the strikes on a U.S.-owned floating storage facility and a Greek-owned tanker. No injuries were reported.
The office of the Egyptian prime minister said initial investigations showed the fires on the two vessels had been caused by a drone.
Egypt, a close U.S. ally and regional mediator, is one of the only countries in the Middle East to have been spared direct military action during the war.
A strike by Iran or its allies, if confirmed, would mark a significant widening of the conflict.
Houthi rebels in Yemen have denied they were behind the attack.
